Optimal modeling and forecasting of the energy consumption and production in China

Energy is of fundamental importance to a nation's economy. Accurate prediction of the energy consumption and production in China can play a guiding role in making the energy consumption plan, and facilitate timely and effective decision making of energy policy. This article proposes a novel GM (gray model) (1,1) model based on optimizing initial condition according to the principle of new information priority. The optimized model and five other GM (1,1) models are applied in the modeling of China's energy consumption and production. Both the simulation and prediction accuracy of the models are compared and analyzed. We obtain the result that the optimized model has higher prediction accuracy than the other five models. Therefore, the presented optimized model is further utilized to predict China's energy consumption and production from 2013 to 2017. The result indicates that China's energy consumption and production will keep increasing and the gap between the energy production and consumption will also be increasing. Finally, we predict Iran's and Argentina's energy consumption to further prove the effectiveness of the proposed model.

[1]  Rahmat-Allah Hooshmand,et al.  Short term electric load forecasting by wavelet transform and grey model improved by PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm , 2014 .

[2]  Deng Ju-Long,et al.  Control problems of grey systems , 1982 .

[3]  Hsiao-Tien Pao,et al.  Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model , 2012 .

[4]  Ruan You-xing.  A multivariable grey model based on background value optimization and its application to subgrade settlement prediction , 2013 .

[5]  Wei Zhou,et al.  Generalized GM (1, 1) model and its application in forecasting of fuel production , 2013 .

[6]  Xie Kai.  Gray model (GM(1,1,λ)) based on genetic algorithm , 2000 .

[7]  He Xia.  Weighted Least Squares for Estimating Parameters of Grey GM(1,1)Model , 2012 .

[8]  Coşkun Hamzaçebi,et al.  Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model , 2014 .

[9]  M. Mao,et al.  Application of grey model GM(1, 1) to vehicle fatality risk estimation , 2006 .

[10]  Sifeng Liu,et al.  Discrete grey forecasting model and its optimization , 2009 .

[11]  Zhu Bi.  Cost Prediction of Patrol Repair for Armored Equipments Based on Residual Error GM(1,1) Model , 2013 .

[12]  Wei Shang,et al.  A small-sample hybrid model for forecasting energy-related CO2 emissions , 2014 .

[13]  Liu Si-fen,et al.  The Range Suitable for GM (1,1) , 2000 .

[14]  Yong-Huang Lin,et al.  Applying fuzzy grey modification model on inflow forecasting , 2012, Eng. Appl. Artif. Intell..

[15]  Liu Si-feng,et al.  The GM models that x(n) be taken as initial value , 2004 .

[16]  J. Deng,et al.  Introduction to Grey system theory , 1989 .

[17]  Li-Chang Hsu,et al.  Applying the Grey prediction model to the global integrated circuit industry , 2003 .

[18]  Yong-Huang Lin,et al.  Adaptive and high-precision grey forecasting model , 2009, Expert Syst. Appl..

[19]  Sifeng Liu,et al.  An approach to increase prediction precision of GM(1, 1) model based on optimization of the initial condition , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[20]  Yi-Ming Wei,et al.  Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model , 2014 .

[21]  Lee-Ing Tong,et al.  Forecasting energy consumption using a grey model improved by incorporating genetic programming , 2011 .

[22]  Jian-Chuan Yin,et al.  ONLINE GREY PREDICTION OF SHIP ROLL MOTION USING VARIABLE RBFN , 2013, Appl. Artif. Intell..

[23]  Ying Peng,et al.  A hybrid approach of HMM and grey model for age-dependent health prediction of engineering assets , 2011, Expert Syst. Appl..

[24]  Hong Liu,et al.  Parameters Optimization of GM(1, 1) Model Based on Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm , 2012, Grey Syst. Theory Appl..

[25]  Xie Nai-ming.  Study on the properties of new information discrete GM(1,1) model , 2010 .

[26]  Jiajun Chen,et al.  A grey-forecasting interval-parameter mixed-integer programming approach for integrated electric-environmental management–A case study of Beijing , 2013 .

[27]  Wai Keung Wong,et al.  A seasonal discrete grey forecasting model for fashion retailing , 2014, Knowl. Based Syst..

[28]  Sifeng Liu,et al.  Grey system model with the fractional order accumulation , 2013, Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul..