Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
暂无分享,去创建一个
Mevin B Hooten | Catherine S. Jarnevich | Michael C Dietze | Kathleen C Weathers | Christine M Laney | Andrew Fox | Lindsay M Beck-Johnson | Julio L Betancourt | Catherine S Jarnevich | Timothy H Keitt | Melissa A Kenney | Laurel G Larsen | Henry W Loescher | Claire K Lunch | Bryan C Pijanowski | James T Randerson | Emily K Read | Andrew T Tredennick | Rodrigo Vargas | Ethan P White | J. Randerson | K. Weathers | E. Read | M. Hooten | B. Pijanowski | R. Vargas | J. Betancourt | A. Tredennick | M. Dietze | T. Keitt | M. Kenney | E. White | L. Larsen | C. Laney | H. Loescher | C. Lunch | A. Fox | Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson | C. Jarnevich
[1] S. Collins,et al. A framework for assessing ecosystem dynamics in response to chronic resource alterations induced by global change. , 2009, Ecology.
[2] Robert T. Clemen,et al. Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis , 1997 .
[3] G.A.F. Seber,et al. 6 Environmental adaptive sampling , 1994, Environmental Statistics.
[4] Alistair J. Hobday,et al. Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture , 2014 .
[5] Owen L. Petchey,et al. The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants , 2015, bioRxiv.
[6] K. Weathers,et al. Frontiers in Ecosystem Ecology from a Community Perspective: The Future is Boundless and Bright , 2016, Ecosystems.
[7] A. H. Murphy,et al. Probability Forecasting in Meteorology , 1984 .
[8] Alo Laas,et al. Continuous and high-frequency measurements in limnology: history, applications, and future challenges , 2016 .
[9] Sarah J. Converse,et al. Special Issue Article: Adaptive management for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain world Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program , 2011 .
[10] T. Wall,et al. Moving Toward the Deliberate Co-Production of Climate Science Knowledge , 2015 .
[11] Michael C Whitlock,et al. Data Archiving , 2010, The American Naturalist.
[12] Richard P Stumpf,et al. Skill assessment for an operational algal bloom forecast system. , 2009, Journal of marine systems : journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques.
[13] Mark A. Liniger,et al. Can multi‐model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? , 2007 .
[14] E. Cloyd,et al. Ch. 26: Decision Support: Connecting Science, Risk Perception, and Decisions. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment , 2014 .
[15] Christopher Potter,et al. Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: processes, data, models, and challenges , 2011 .
[16] Michael A. Wulder,et al. Opening the archive: How free data has enabled the science and monitoring promise of Landsat , 2012 .
[17] Matthew Jones,et al. Some Simple Guidelines for Effective Data Management , 2009 .
[18] José Suárez-Lledó,et al. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2011 .
[19] K. Weathers,et al. The role of federal agencies in the application of scientific knowledge , 2010 .
[20] J. Randerson,et al. Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies , 2011, Science.
[21] Mevin B. Hooten,et al. Optimal spatio-temporal hybrid sampling designs for ecological monitoring , 2009 .
[22] Michael C. Dietze,et al. Facilitating feedbacks between field measurements and ecosystem models , 2013 .
[23] S. Carpenter,et al. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. , 2001, Science.
[24] Anthony C. Janetos,et al. Developing better indicators to track climate impacts , 2015 .
[25] Kenton McHenry,et al. A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes , 2014 .
[26] Wayne M. Getz,et al. Appropriate complexity landscape modeling , 2016 .
[27] Henry W. Loescher,et al. National Ecological Observatory Network: Beginnings, Programmatic and Scientific Challenges, and Ecological Forecasting , 2017 .
[28] C. Tebaldi,et al. Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility , 2013 .
[29] Brian J. McGill,et al. The priority of prediction in ecological understanding , 2017 .
[30] Michael C Dietze,et al. Prediction in ecology: a first-principles framework. , 2017, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[31] Ian M. Mitchell,et al. Best Practices for Scientific Computing , 2012, PLoS biology.
[32] James S. Clark,et al. Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians , 2004 .
[33] Stephen Crowley,et al. Building the team for team science , 2016 .
[34] Carl J. Walters,et al. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources , 1986 .
[35] William K. Michener,et al. Meta-information concepts for ecological data management , 2006, Ecol. Informatics.
[36] Charles T. Driscoll,et al. Integrating Science and Policy: A Case Study of the Hubbard Brook Research Foundation Science Links Program , 2011 .
[37] V. Lakshmi. Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future , 2007 .
[38] E. J. Rosi-Marshall,et al. The Next Decade of Big Data in Ecosystem Science , 2017, Ecosystems.
[39] M. G. Morgan. Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[40] K. Weathers,et al. Constructing a Broader and More Inclusive Value System in Science , 2007 .
[41] Ethan P. White,et al. Nine simple ways to make it easier to (re)use your data , 2013 .
[42] K. A. S. Mislan,et al. Elevating the status of code in ecology , 2015, bioRxiv.
[43] Mevin B Hooten,et al. Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology. , 2016, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[44] R. Stouffer,et al. Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? , 2008, Science.
[45] Adrian E. Raftery,et al. Bayesian Model Averaging: A Tutorial , 2016 .
[46] Dino Zardi,et al. On the boundary‐layer structure over highly complex terrain: Key findings from MAP , 2007 .
[47] R. Craig. 'Stationarity is Dead' - Long Live Transformation: Five Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Law , 2010 .
[48] L. Mark Berliner,et al. Hierarchical Bayesian Time Series Models , 1996 .
[49] Kristofer D. Johnson,et al. Enhancing interoperability to facilitate implementation of REDD+: case study of Mexico , 2017 .
[50] S. Eigenbrode,et al. Employing Philosophical Dialogue in Collaborative Science , 2007 .
[51] Ethan P. White,et al. Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices , 2017, bioRxiv.
[52] Frederick G. Shuman,et al. History of Numerical Weather Prediction at the National Meteorological Center , 1989 .
[53] Stefan Krause,et al. Frontiers in real‐time ecohydrology – a paradigm shift in understanding complex environmental systems , 2015 .
[54] Zachary A. Collier,et al. Value of information analysis: the state of application , 2014, Environment Systems and Decisions.
[55] Carly Strasser,et al. Primer on Data Management: What you always wanted to know , 2012 .
[56] Mevin B. Hooten,et al. A guide to Bayesian model selection for ecologists , 2015 .
[57] Philippe Ciais,et al. A framework for benchmarking land models , 2012 .
[58] J. Shaman,et al. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza , 2012, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
[59] Peter Bauer,et al. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction , 2015, Nature.
[60] Alistair J. Hobday,et al. Seasonal forecasting for decision support in marine fisheries and aquaculture , 2014 .
[61] Adrian E. Raftery,et al. Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial (with comments by M. Clyde, David Draper and E. I. George, and a rejoinder by the authors , 1999 .
[62] Philip E. Tetlock,et al. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction , 2015 .
[63] Hugh Drummond,et al. Archiving Primary Data: Solutions for Long-Term Studies. , 2015, Trends in ecology & evolution.
[64] Nassim Nicholas Taleb,et al. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable , 2007 .
[65] J. Olden,et al. Integrated assessment of biological invasions. , 2014, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.
[66] Atul K. Jain,et al. Using ecosystem experiments to improve vegetation models , 2015 .
[67] M. Litvak,et al. Toward accounting for ecoclimate teleconnections: intra- and inter-continental consequences of altered energy balance after vegetation change , 2015, Landscape Ecology.
[68] G. A. Bradshaw,et al. Conservation Ecology: Uncertainty as Information: Narrowing the Science-policy Gap , 2008 .
[69] Robin Gregory,et al. Structured Decision Making: A Practical Guide to Environmental Management Choices , 2012 .
[70] Eugenia Kalnay,et al. Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability , 2002 .
[71] Mevin B. Hooten,et al. State‐space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population , 2015 .