Short-time traffic flow prediction with ARIMA-GARCH model

Short-time traffic flow prediction is a significant interest in transportation study, and it is essential in congestion control and traffic network management. In this paper, we propose an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMA-GARCH) model for traffic flow prediction. The model combines linear ARIMA model with nonlinear GARCH model, so it can capture both the conditional mean and conditional heteroscedasticity of traffic flow series. The model is calibrated, validated and used for prediction based on PeMS single loop detector data. The performance of the hybrid model is compared with that of standard ARIMA model. The results show that the introduction of conditional heteroscedasticity cannot bring satisfactory improvement to prediction accuracy, in some cases the general GARCH(1,1) model may even deteriorate the performance. Thus for ordinary traffic flow prediction, the standard ARIMA model is sufficient.

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