THE IMPACT OF SPATIAL VERSUS ECONOMIC MEASURES IN AN URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN 1 Reprints: University of Antwerp – UFSIA – Faculty of Economics Prinsstraat 13 B-2000 Antwerp. 1

Abstract A multimodal model for traffic was developed by the Flemish administration. For the first time an integrated set of measures was taken into account to forecast statistics on car-traffic and the use of public transport systems during evening peak-hours. The measures can be classified in four groups: planning, infrastructure, regulation and financial. Each input is forecasted for 2010 by means of two opposite scenarios: a trend scenario and a policy (sustainable) scenario. The model was first tested for the Antwerp region on a very detailed geographical level. We sought to identify which measures had a significant influence on the results. As a result of a sensitivity analysis we conclude that even in the long run planning measures are least effective, followed by infrastructure measures that may stimulate local people to make use of public transport. Regulatory measures and especially financial measures have clearly the most significant impact on generation of passenger kilometres and modal choice during the evening rush hour.