Toward a unified approach to the study of expert judgment

One of the marks of the 20th century must surely be the rise of the importance of the expert. As the operating functions of even ordinary household appliances become increasingly less and less understandable to the person who uses them, the expert who does understand them increases in importance. The same is true in the corporate and government workplace as well as in military settings. Anyone might have repaired, or at least understood, a broken harness strap; but who dares now to repair or even claims to understand a TV set, radio, VCR, washing machine, fuel injection system, or the electronic mysteries of a missile guidance system—other than the expert?

[1]  K. R. Hammond,et al.  Generalizing over conditions by combining the multitrait-multimethod matrix and the representative design of experiments. , 1986, Psychological bulletin.

[2]  T. Sarbin.  A Contribution to the Study of Actuarial and Individual Methods of Prediction , 1943, American Journal of Sociology.

[3]  E. Frenkel-Brunswik,et al.  Motivation and behavior , 1942 .

[4]  P. Hoffman.  The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment. , 1960, Psychological bulletin.

[5]  J. Shanteau,et al.  Livestock judges: How much information can an expert use? , 1978 .

[6]  Alf C. Zimmer,et al.  A Model for the Interpretation of Verbal Predictions , 1984, Int. J. Man Mach. Stud..

[7]  James Shanteau,et al.  Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers , 1984 .

[8]  H. A. Wallace,et al.  What is in the Corn Judge's Mind?1 , 1923 .

[9]  Alison L. Kidd,et al.  Man-Machine Interface Issues in the Construction and Use of an Expert System , 1985, Int. J. Man Mach. Stud..

[10]  Allen Newell,et al.  Human Problem Solving. , 1973 .

[11]  Donald W. Fiske,et al.  The prediction of performance in clinical psychology , 1951 .

[12]  Coombs.  Developments of expert systems , 1984 .

[13]  Glenis Moore,et al.  The art of artificial intelligence , 1987 .

[14]  K. R. Hammond.  Probabilistic functioning and the clinical method. , 1955, Psychological review.

[15]  Edward L. Thorndike,et al.  Fundamental theorems in judging men. , 1918 .

[16]  Andrew Basden.  On the Application of Expert Systems , 1983, Int. J. Man Mach. Stud..

[17]  Dorothea P. Simon,et al.  Expert and Novice Performance in Solving Physics Problems , 1980, Science.

[18]  Hans J. Berliner,et al.  Backgammon Computer Program Beats World Champion , 1980 .

[19]  Edward A. Felgenbaum.  The art of artificial intelligence: themes and case studies of knowledge engineering , 1977, IJCAI 1977.

[20]  Kenneth R. Hammond,et al.  Improving Scientists’ Judgments of Risk , 1984 .