A wheat canopy model for use in disease management decision support systems

Summary A model is described which predicts those aspects of wheat canopy development and growth which are influential in determining the development of epidemics of foliar pathogens, the efficacy of foliar applied fungicides and the impact of disease on yield; specifically the emergence, expansion and senescence of upper culm leaves in relation to anthesis date. This focus on upper leaves allowed prediction of leaf emergence dates by reference to anthesis, rather than sowing. This avoided the step changes in flag leaf emergence date with temperature, reported with earlier models, without the additional complexity of a stochastic approach. The model is designed to be coupled to models of foliar disease, where the primary effect on yield is via reduction in green canopy area and hence interception of photosynthetically active radiation. Mechanisms were incorporated to allow observations of crop development during the growing season to update state variables and adjust parameters affecting future predictions. The model was calibrated using experimental data, and validated against independent observations of crop development on four wheat cultivars across seven contrasting sites in the UK. Anthesis date and upper culm leaf emergence were always predicted within one week of their observed dates.