Process engineering models are combined with predictive microbial models to provide an estimate of the effects of processing on microbial growth and product safety in food production and distribution. Mass and energy balances together with simple microbial kinetics are incorporated into a commercial simulation package. This allows microbial growth and product safety in specific stages of food production and distribution to be calculated and can be a valuable tool for HACCP analyses on a more quantitative basis. At the early process design stage, when little if any accurate data is available, these quantitative estimates can be very useful to determine critical stages. In HACCP studies carried out on existing plants, greater accuracy might be desired. The quantitative estimates made can then be used to determine where more accurate kinetic estimates are needed.
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