Betting on the future: the virtues of contingent contracts.

It happens all the time. Two parties with common interests fail to reach an agreement--about a sale, a merger, a technology transfer--because they have different expectations about the future. They are both so confident in their prediction, or so suspicious of the other side's motives, that they refuse to compromise. Such impasses are hard to break through. Fortunately, they can often be avoided altogether by using a straightforward but frequently overlooked type of agreement called a contingent contract. The terms of a contingent contract are not finalized until the uncertain event in question--the contingency--takes place. In some areas of business, such as compensation, contingent contracts are common: a CEO's pay is tied to the company's stock price, for instance. But in many business negotiations, contingent contracts are either ignored or rejected out of hand. That's mistake, according to the authors. In an increasingly uncertain world, flexible contingent contracts can actually be more rational and less risky than rigid, traditional ones. In particular, contingent contracts offer six benefits: they enable a difference of opinion to become the basis of an agreement, not an obstacle to it; they cancel out the biases of negotiators; they level the playing field by reducing the impact of asymmetric information; they provide a means of uncovering deceitful dealings; they reduce risk by sharing it among parties; and they motivate parties to fulfill their promises. While contingent contracts are not appropriate in all instances, they are much more broadly applicable than managers may think.