Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in northeast India

The northeast region (NER) of India covers an area of 0.26 million km2. This region is one of the highest rainfall-receiving regions on the planet. Consequently, it has huge water and hydropower potential and analysis of rainfall and temperature trends would be of interest to water and energy planners. Trends in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall and temperature on the subdivision and regional scale for the NER were examined in this study. Trend analysis of rainfall data series for 1871–2008 did not show any clear trend for the region as a whole, although there are seasonal trends for some seasons and for some hydro-meteorological subdivisions. Similar analysis for temperature data showed that all the four temperature variables (maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures and temperature range) had rising trend. Notably for the post-monsoon season, the Sen’s estimator of slope (°C/year) was 0.019, 0.011, and 0.015 for the maximum, minimum, and mean temperature, respectively. Copyright  2012 Royal Meteorological Society

[1]  Timothy A. Cohn,et al.  Nature's style: Naturally trendy , 2005 .

[2]  M. Kendall.  Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[3]  Jack E. Dibb,et al.  Precipitation fluctuations in the Nepal Himalaya and its vicinity and relationship with some large scale climatological parameters. , 2000 .

[4]  P. Xavier,et al.  Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment , 2006, Science.

[5]  Won-Tae Kwon,et al.  Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia , 2003 .

[6]  Tariq Masood Ali Khan, O. P. Singh, Md. Sazedur Ra.  Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Trends Along the Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Frequency of Intense Cyclones , 2000 .

[7]  S. K. Dash,et al.  Some evidence of climate change in twentieth-century India , 2007 .

[8]  M. Dore.  Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: what do we know? , 2005, Environment international.

[9]  Murari Lal,et al.  Climatic Change — Implications for India’s Water Resources , 2001 .

[10]  S. Jain,et al.  Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir Valley in the last century , 2010 .

[11]  P. Agarwal.  CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIAN AGRICULTURE , 2007 .

[12]  N. Goel,et al.  Evaluation of temperature trends over India / Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde , 2005 .

[13]  S. Jain,et al.  Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India , 2010 .

[14]  S. Chander,et al.  Effect of increasing temperature on yield of some winter crops in northwest India , 2008 .

[15]  Alain Pietroniro,et al.  Hydrological trends and variability in the Liard River basin / Tendances hydrologiques et variabilité dans le basin de la rivière Liard , 2004 .

[16]  N. Goel,et al.  Evaluation of Temperature Trends over India , 2005 .

[17]  O. P. Singh,et al.  Recent Sea Level and Sea Surface Temperature Trends Along the Bangladesh Coast in Relation to the Frequency of Intense Cyclones , 2000 .

[18]  C. F. Kossack,et al.  Rank Correlation Methods , 1949 .

[19]  M. Bayazit,et al.  To prewhiten or not to prewhiten in trend analysis? , 2007 .

[20]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[21]  B. Parthasarathy,et al.  Fluctuations in All-India summer monsoon rainfall during 1871–1978 , 1984 .

[22]  A. Munot,et al.  All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871–1993 , 1994 .

[23]  Narendra Singh Raghuwanshi,et al.  Temporal Trends in Estimates of Reference Evapotranspiration over India , 2009 .

[24]  P. Jagannathan,et al.  Trends and Periodicities of Rainfall Over India , 1973 .

[25]  K. Vinnikov,et al.  Empirical Data on Contemporary Global Climate Changes (Temperature and Precipitation) , 1990 .

[26]  M. Arora,et al.  Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India , 2008 .

[27]  S. Kulshrestha,et al.  Climate changes and trends over India , 2021, MAUSAM.

[28]  M. Arora,et al.  Basin-wide assessment of temperature trends in northwest and central India / Estimation par bassin versant de tendances de température au nord-ouest et au centre de l'Inde , 2008 .

[29]  D. P. Sarkar,et al.  Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under the humid conditions of northeast India , 2009 .

[30]  V. Singh,et al.  Trends in temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration in Northeast India , 2011 .

[31]  Richard M. Vogel,et al.  Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation , 2000 .

[32]  T. Partal,et al.  Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data , 2006 .

[33]  H. B. Mann.  Nonparametric Tests Against Trend , 1945 .

[34]  S. Yue,et al.  Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation , 2003 .

[35]  D. Winstanley.  Recent Rainfall Trends in Africa, the Middle East and India , 1973, Nature.

[36]  Vijay P. Singh,et al.  Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India , 2012 .

[37]  A. K. Gosain,et al.  Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Indian river basins , 2006 .

[38]  D. R. Kothawale,et al.  On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India , 2005 .

[39]  M. Mirza.  Global warming and changes in the probability of occurrence of floods in Bangladesh and implications , 2002 .

[40]  D. Helsel,et al.  Statistical methods in water resources , 2020, Techniques and Methods.

[41]  J. R. Wallis,et al.  Hydro-Climatological Trends in the Continental United States, 1948-88 , 1994 .

[42]  G. B. Pant,et al.  Diurnal asymmetry of surface temperature trends over India , 1994 .

[43]  H. N. Srivastava,et al.  Decadal trends in climate over India , 2021, MAUSAM.

[44]  S. Jain,et al.  Trends in rainfall amount and number of rainy days in river basins of India (1951–2004) , 2011 .

[45]  A. Monot,et al.  Droughts/floods in the summer monsoon season over different meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1871–1984 , 1987 .

[46]  P. Sen.  Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau , 1968 .

[47]  Michio Hashino,et al.  Temperature trends in Japan: 1900–1996 , 2003 .

[48]  G. B. Pant,et al.  Climates of South Asia , 1997 .