Advanced supply chain planning with mixtures of backorders, lost sales, and lost contract

Abstract This paper investigates a supply chain system in which a supplier prepares for the selling season by building stock levels prior to the beginning of the season and shortages realized at the beginning of the season are represented as mixtures of backorders and lost sales. Backlogged items are replenished as soon as possible through an emergency procurement as opposed to waiting until the next scheduled delivery as in many continuous review scenarios, and the backorder rate is modeled as a piecewise linear function of the magnitude of the shortage. The often intangible cost associated with lost sales and customer goodwill is also quantified. In particular, the buyer and supplier are engaged in a contractual agreement and the loss of customer goodwill from the supplier’s perspective is represented as the expected cost associated with violating the conditions of the contract. The likelihood of contract cancellation is also represented as a function of the magnitude of shortage. The optimal solution is derived in closed form for the case of exponential demand distribution, and an example problem is illustrated with numerical data in order to demonstrate calculation of the optimal solution and corresponding sensitivity analysis for demand distributions in which the solution cannot be expressed in closed form.

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