A System Dynamics Model of the Chicken Meat Supply Chain faced with Bird Flu

System dynamics methodology is widely applied in modelling and analyzing supply chain behaviour under uncertain environment. However, there are only few applications in food supply chain in a context of sanitary crises. In this paper, we are accordingly interested in studying the behaviour of the entire chicken meat supply chain coping with sanitary crises effects. A model is proposed to study the SC behaviour dealing with the shortages in upstream supply capacity and downstream unpredictable consumer behaviour disturbed by the crisis as well. This model will be simulated and analyzed to investigate the behaviour of the chicken meat SC under bird flu crisis during the period from October 2005 to March 2006 in France. We then use a sensitivity analysis to study the supply chain stability under different environment uncertainties. Our model should be helpful to decision-makers for other fresh food supply chains when they are facing such crises.

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