Who is early voting? An individual level examination

Abstract Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.

[1]  B. Highton.  Easy Registration and Voter Turnout , 1997, The Journal of Politics.

[2]  Steven H. Chaffee,et al.  Time of Decision and Media Use During the Ford-Carter Campaign , 1980 .

[3]  Robert M. Stein,et al.  Voting early but not often , 1997 .

[4]  David B. Magleby.  Participation in Mail Ballot Elections , 1987 .

[5]  W. Riker,et al.  A Theory of the Calculus of Voting , 1968, American Political Science Review.

[6]  Henry E. Brady,et al.  Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation , 1995, American Political Science Review.

[7]  Stephen D. Shaffer.  A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960-1976 , 1981 .

[8]  G. Neeley,et al.  The Impact of Early Voting on Turnout: The 1994 Elections in Tennessee , 1996 .

[9]  Robert S. Erikson,et al.  Why Do People Vote? Because They Are Registered , 1981 .

[10]  Richard J. Timpone.  Structure, Behavior, and Voter Turnout in the United States , 1998, American Political Science Review.

[11]  Michael C. Munger,et al.  Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections , 1989, American Political Science Review.

[12]  C. Gans.  A Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward , 1990, PS: Political Science & Politics.

[13]  R. Teixeira,et al.  The Disappearing American Voter , 1992 .

[14]  Mark Fenster,et al.  The Impact of Allowing Day of Registration Voting On Turnout in U.S. Elections From 1960 To 1992 , 1994 .

[15]  Survey of Vote-by-Mail Senate Election in the State of Oregon , 1997 .

[16]  R. W. Boyd.  Decline of U.S. Voter Turnout , 1981 .

[17]  A. Downs.  An Economic Theory of Democracy , 1957 .

[18]  R. Stein.  Introduction: Early Voting , 1998 .

[19]  Gretchen A. Kalsow,et al.  Comparing absentee and precinct voters: A view over time , 1996 .

[20]  James D. King.  Comparing Local and Presidential Elections , 1981 .

[21]  G. Powell.  American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective , 1986, American Political Science Review.

[22]  John Ferejohn,et al.  The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis , 1974, American Political Science Review.

[23]  John H. Aldrich,et al.  The Decline of Electoral Participation in America , 1982 .

[24]  Tim Futing Liao,et al.  Interpreting probability models , 1994 .

[25]  Gregory A. Caldeira,et al.  Mailing In the Vote: Correlates and Consequences of Absentee Voting , 1985 .

[26]  Steven J. Rosenstone,et al.  The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout , 1978, American Political Science Review.

[27]  Allan L. McCutcheon,et al.  Cross-Level Inference , 1995 .

[28]  C. A. Cassel,et al.  Explanations of Turnout Decline , 1981 .

[29]  Frances Fox Piven,et al.  Why Americans Don't Vote , 1988 .