New-Onset Gout as an Independent Risk Factor for Returning to Dialysis After Kidney Transplantation

Background. The causal relationship between gout and renal transplant outcomes is difficult to assess due to multiple interacting covariates. This study sought to estimate the independent effect of new-onset gout on renal transplant outcomes using a methodology that accounted for these interactions. Methods. This study analyzed data on patients in the US Renal Data System (USRDS) who received a primary kidney transplant between 2008 and 2015. The exposure was new-onset gout, and the primary endpoint was returning to dialysis >12 months postindex date (transplant date). A marginal structural model (MSM) was fitted to determine the relative risk of new-onset gout on return to dialysis. Results. 18 525 kidney transplant recipients in the USRDS met study eligibility. One thousand three hundred ninety-nine (7.6%) patients developed new-onset gout, and 1420 (7.7%) returned to dialysis >12 months postindex. Adjusting for baseline and time-varying confounders via the MSM showed new-onset gout was associated with a 51% increased risk of return to (RR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.03-2.20). Conclusions. This finding suggests that new onset gout after kidney transplantation could be a harbinger for poor renal outcomes, and to our knowledge is the first study of kidney transplant outcomes using a technique that accounted for the dynamic relationship between renal dysfunction and gout.