How forecasts expressing uncertainty are perceived by UK students

A survey was conducted at the University of Manchester during autumn 2010. Participants filled out an anonymous survey during an untimed testing session. A total of 92 students participated: 62 second-year undergraduates in EART20170 Computing, Data Analysis and Communication Skills and 30 third-year undergraduates in EART30551 Meteorology (Schultz et al., 2012). These students were primarily in the earthand environmental-science programmes, but had little prior academic experience with meteorology. As the results from the two groups were similar, they were combined into one dataset. The survey questions were drawn from previously published studies in the USA by Morss et al. (2008, 2010), Joslyn et al. (2009), and Joslyn and Savelli (2010), with minor modifications (e.g. to adapt the questions to Celsius instead of Fahrenheit, and improvements in wording). Because the questions had been used previously, they were not pre-tested within the UK. The surveys presented participants with a series of human-behaviour questions designed to test four themes:

[1]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  300 Billion Served: Sources, Perceptions, Uses, and Values of Weather Forecasts , 2009 .

[2]  Limor Nadav-Greenberg,et al.  Probability of Precipitation: Assessment and Enhancement of End-User Understanding , 2009 .

[3]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  Exploring Variations in People’s Sources, Uses, and Perceptions of Weather Forecasts , 2011 .

[4]  Gerd Gigerenzer,et al.  “A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts? , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[5]  David M. Schultz,et al.  Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest , 2013 .

[6]  Luca Delle Monache,et al.  A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information , 2011 .

[7]  Robert T. Ryan.  Digital Forecasts - Communication, Public Understanding, and Decision Making , 2003 .

[8]  Eve Gruntfest,et al.  Information sources for flash flood warnings in Denver, CO and Austin, TX , 2007 .

[9]  Susan L Joslyn,et al.  Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error. , 2012, Journal of experimental psychology. Applied.

[10]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Probability Forecasting in Meteorology , 1984 .

[11]  Ramón de Elía,et al.  Diversity in Interpretations of Probability: Implications for Weather Forecasting , 2005 .

[12]  Susan Joslyn,et al.  Boater Safety: Communicating Weather Forecast Information to High-Stakes End Users , 2012 .

[13]  Limor Nadav-Greenberg,et al.  Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Decision Making Among Nonexperts , 2009 .

[14]  Susan Joslyn,et al.  Communicating forecast uncertainty: public perception of weather forecast uncertainty , 2010 .

[15]  Michael J. Brennan,et al.  Operational Forecaster Uncertainty Needs and Future Roles , 2008 .

[16]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication , 2010 .

[17]  冨山 芳幸,et al.  「Completing the Forecast : Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts」, National Research Council著, The National Academies Press, 2006年, 112頁, 25.88ドル, ISBN-13:978-0-309-10255-1(本だな) , 2007 .

[18]  Julie L. Demuth,et al.  Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information: An Exploratory Study with Broadcast Meteorologists , 2009 .

[19]  Susan Joslyn,et al.  PROBCAST: A Web-Based Portal to Mesoscale Probabilistic Forecasts , 2009 .

[20]  Alan Chun Kiat. Tan.  Public Media Use and Preference for Obtaining Weather Information , 1976 .

[21]  John Monahan,et al.  Violent storms and violent people: How meteorology can inform risk communication in mental health law. , 1996 .

[22]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts , 1980 .

[23]  David M. Schultz,et al.  Decision Making by Austin, Texas, Residents in Hypothetical Tornado Scenarios* , 2010 .

[24]  Rebecca E. Morss,et al.  Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public , 2008 .

[25]  Harold E. Brooks,et al.  Societal and Economic Research and Applications For Weather Forecasts: Priorities for the North American THORPEX Program , 2008 .