Advances in geomatic simulations for environmental dynamics

Modelling environmental dynamics aids in the understanding and anticipation of future evolutions. Their prospective simulation supports decision-making for environmental management. This introductory chapter gives an overview about the context, objectives and opportunities (the challenges), followed by a summery of the methodological approaches commonly used in environmental modelling and simulation. Based on this general opening, the third part presents comprises chapters, which are case studies applying various models to a large array of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, and land management. In this section, authors provide a comparison of these case studies based on several criteria such as objectives, scales, data, study areas, calibration and validation techniques, results and outcome.

[1]  H. Balzter Markov chain models for vegetation dynamics , 2000 .

[2]  D. C. Glenn-Lewin,et al.  Markov models and succession: a test from a heathland in the Netherlands , 1985 .

[3]  A. Rodríguez-Bachiller,et al.  Expert Systems and Geographic Information Systems for Impact Assessment , 2003 .

[4]  Alexey Voinov,et al.  Landscape simulation modeling : a spatially explicit, dynamic approach , 2003 .

[5]  Marc Savall,et al.  YAMAM - un modèle d'organisation pour les systèmes multi-agents. implémentation dans la plate-forme Phoenix , 2001 .

[6]  Guy Engelen,et al.  Cellular Automata as the Basis of Integrated Dynamic Regional Modelling , 1997 .

[7]  M. Janssen,et al.  Multi-Agent Systems for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review , 2003 .

[8]  M. Molenaar An Introduction To The Theory Of Spatial Object Modelling For GIS , 1998 .

[9]  M. Campagna GIS for Sustainable Development , 2005 .

[10]  Heekuck Oh,et al.  Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition , 1993, Adv. Comput..

[11]  E. Capaldi,et al.  The organization of behavior. , 1992, Journal of applied behavior analysis.

[12]  A. Brimicombe GIS, environmental modelling and engineering , 2003 .

[13]  C. Lobry,et al.  Automates cellulaires et modélisation de la dynamique forestière , 1997 .

[14]  Z. Vekerdy Spatial analysis: modelling in a GIS environment , 1998 .

[15]  Damien Paque Gestion de l’historicité et méthodes de mise à jour dans les SIG , 2004 .

[16]  M. Batty Urban Modelling: Algorithms, Calibrations, Predictions , 2010 .

[17]  Tania Mezzadri Centeno La modelisation et la projection spatio-temporelle dans les systemes d'information geographique , 1998 .

[18]  Dazhong Wen Land Mosaics: The Ecology of Landscapes and Regions , 1997 .

[19]  B. Martín,et al.  Redes neuronales y sistemas borrosos: un libro de texto en español , 1970 .

[20]  Michael Batty Geographic Information Systems, Spatial Modelling and Policy Evaluation , 1993 .

[21]  Lotfi A. Zadeh,et al.  Fuzzy Sets , 1996, Inf. Control..

[22]  T. Lai,et al.  Stochastic Neural Networks With Applications to Nonlinear Time Series , 2001 .

[23]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  Land-use and land-cover change : local processes and global impacts , 2010 .

[24]  K. Clarke,et al.  Diffusion and Coalescence of the Houston Metropolitan Area: Evidence Supporting a New Urban Theory , 2005 .

[25]  Peter M. Atkinson,et al.  Modelling scale in geographical information science , 2001 .

[26]  M. Kanevski,et al.  Analysis and modelling of spatial environmental data , 2004 .

[27]  Michael J de Smith,et al.  Geospatial Analysis: A Comprehensive Guide to Principles, Techniques and Software Tools , 2007 .

[28]  J. Stillwell,et al.  Applied GIS and Spatial Analysis , 2003 .

[29]  Bernard Widrow,et al.  Adaptive switching circuits , 1988 .

[30]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: tools for GIS-based model implementation , 2001, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[31]  Konrad Stahl,et al.  Therories of urban business location , 1987 .

[32]  Xia Li,et al.  A Constrained CA Model for the Simulation and Planning of Sustainable Urban Forms by Using GIS , 2001 .

[33]  Alex Hagen,et al.  Fuzzy set approach to assessing similarity of categorical maps , 2003, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[34]  S. Hathout,et al.  The use of GIS for monitoring and predicting urban growth in east and west St Paul, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. , 2002, Journal of environmental management.

[35]  Andrew K. Skidmore,et al.  Environmental modelling: issues and discussion , 2002 .

[36]  K. McGarigal,et al.  FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape structure. , 1995 .

[37]  Bernadette Bouchon-Meunier,et al.  La logique floue , 1993 .

[38]  D. R. Hill,et al.  Modélisation et simulation d'écosystèmesDes modèles déterministes aux simulations à événements discrets , 1997 .

[39]  G. Bocco,et al.  Predicting land-cover and land-use change in the urban fringe A case in Morelia city, Mexico , 2001 .

[40]  E. Salinero Teledetección ambiental: la observación de la Tierra desde el espacio , 2002 .

[41]  B. Soares-Filho,et al.  dinamica—a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier , 2002 .

[42]  N. Metropolis,et al.  The Monte Carlo method. , 1949 .

[43]  P. Verburg,et al.  Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes , 2006 .

[44]  Michael Batty,et al.  Advanced Spatial Analysis: The CASA Book of GIS , 2003 .

[45]  Roger White,et al.  Developing an Urban Land Use Simulator for European Cities , 2001 .

[46]  Ulrich Parlitz,et al.  Nonlinear prediction of spatio-temporal time series , 2000, ESANN.

[47]  Robert Costanza,et al.  Landscape Simulation Modeling , 2004, Modeling Dynamic Systems.

[48]  D. Tilman Resource Competition between Plankton Algae: An Experimental and Theoretical Approach , 1977 .

[49]  Frederick E. Petry,et al.  Fuzzy Modeling with Spatial Information for Geographic Problems , 2008 .

[50]  Christophe Poix,et al.  Simulation paysagère : un modèle multi-agents pour prendre en compte les relations sociales , 2000 .

[51]  Michael F. Worboys,et al.  GIS : a computing perspective , 2004 .

[52]  R. O. Flamm,et al.  Alternative model formulations for a stochastic simulation of landscape change , 1994, Landscape Ecology.

[53]  C. Nunes,et al.  Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC): Implementation Strategy , 1999 .

[54]  Rusong Wang,et al.  Monitoring and predicting land use change in Beijing using remote sensing and GIS , 2006 .

[55]  Edward J. Rykiel,et al.  Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation , 1996 .

[56]  D. DeAngelis,et al.  Competition and Coexistence: The Effects of Resource Transport and Supply Rates , 1994, The American Naturalist.

[57]  Andre Botequilha Leitão,et al.  Measuring Landscapes: A Planner's Handbook , 2006 .

[58]  Nils Ferrand Modèles Multi-Agents pour l'Aide à la Décision et la Négociation en Aménagement du Territoire , 1997 .

[59]  Arthur W. Burks,et al.  Essays on cellular automata , 1970 .

[60]  Gary Riley,et al.  Expert Systems: Principles and Programming , 2004 .

[61]  Tania Mezzadri-Centeno,et al.  Approach of the spatiotemporal prediction using vectorial geographic data , 1996, Remote Sensing.

[62]  Gary R. Clay Bla and Mla and Measuring Landscapes: A Planner's Handbook , 2008 .

[63]  Anne Ruas,et al.  Modèle de généralisation de données urbaines à base de contraintes et d´autonomie Urban data generalization models using constraints and autonomy , 1999 .

[64]  Raymond S. T. Lee Fuzzy-Neuro Approach to Agent Applications , 2005 .

[65]  Y. Heymann,et al.  CORINE Land Cover. Technical Guide , 1994 .

[66]  D. O. Logofet,et al.  The mathematics of Markov models: what Markov chains can really predict in forest successions. , 2000 .

[67]  collectif ComMod La modélisation comme outil d'accompagnement , 2005 .

[68]  Martin Paegelow,et al.  Various Approaches for Predicting Land Cover in Mountain Areas , 2007, Commun. Stat. Simul. Comput..

[69]  R. G. Pontius,et al.  Detecting important categorical land changes while accounting for persistence , 2004 .

[70]  P. Burrough,et al.  Principles of geographical information systems , 1998 .

[71]  Jay Wright Forrester,et al.  Urban Dynamics , 1969 .

[72]  Andrea Giacomelli Integration of GIS and Simulation Models , 2005 .

[73]  M. Batty,et al.  Modeling urban dynamics through GIS-based cellular automata , 1999 .

[74]  Gul A. Agha,et al.  Concurrency vs. sequential interleavings in 1-D threshold cellular automata , 2004, 18th International Parallel and Distributed Processing Symposium, 2004. Proceedings..

[75]  J. Wainwright,et al.  Environmental Modelling: Finding Simplicity in Complexity , 2013 .

[76]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in spatial modelling based on GIS , 2000 .

[77]  Andrew K. Skidmore,et al.  Environmental Modelling with GIS and Remote Sensing , 2010 .

[78]  E. Chuvieco Earth Observation of Global Change , 2008 .

[79]  F ROSENBLATT,et al.  The perceptron: a probabilistic model for information storage and organization in the brain. , 1958, Psychological review.

[80]  Gail Langran,et al.  Issues of Implementing a Spatiotemporal System , 1993, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[81]  S. Manson Review of Principles of Geographic Information Systems: Spatial Information Systems and Geostatistics , 1999 .

[82]  P. Atkinson,et al.  GIS and Geocomputation , 2000 .

[83]  Myriam Regattieri Delgado,et al.  Spatio-Temporal Prediction by Means of a Fuzzy Rule-based Approach , 2006, 2006 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems.

[84]  Max J. Egenhofer,et al.  Time in Geographic Space: Report on the Specialist Meeting of Research Initiative 10 (94-9) , 1994 .

[85]  Isabelle Reginster,et al.  Scenarios of Future Urban Land Use in Europe , 2006 .

[86]  Master Gardener,et al.  Mathematical games: the fantastic combinations of john conway's new solitaire game "life , 1970 .

[87]  Michael N. DeMers GIS modeling in raster , 2001 .

[88]  J. Hanley,et al.  The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. , 1982, Radiology.

[89]  H. Briassoulis Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches , 2000 .

[90]  B. Soares-Filho,et al.  Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin , 2006, Nature.

[91]  David J. Maguire,et al.  Geographical Information Systems , 1993 .

[92]  Michael Wegener,et al.  Spatial Models and GIS: New Potential and New Models , 1999 .

[93]  Danielle J. Marceau,et al.  Quantifying gap dynamics at the patch mosaic level using a spatially-explicit model of a northern hardwood forest ecosystem , 2001 .

[94]  Marvin Minsky,et al.  Matter, Mind and Models , 1965 .

[95]  Hendrik B. Tiedemann Theory of Self-reproducing Automata and Life| Foundation for a Theoretical Biology? , 1995 .

[96]  P. Pizor Principles of Geographical Information Systems for Land Resources Assessment. , 1987 .

[97]  M. Goodchild,et al.  Environmental Modeling with GIS , 1994 .

[98]  Robert P. Anderson,et al.  Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions , 2006 .

[99]  G. Bonham-Carter Geographic Information Systems for Geoscientists: Modelling with GIS , 1995 .

[100]  Gustavo D. Buzai Geografía y sistemas de información geográfica , 2006 .

[101]  Danielle J. Marceau,et al.  Spatio‐Temporal Object‐Oriented Data Model for Disaggregate Travel Behavior , 2002, Trans. GIS.

[102]  C. Spearman General intelligence Objectively Determined and Measured , 1904 .

[103]  John S. Kimball Earth Observation of Global Change: The Role of Satellite Remote Sensing in Monitoring the Global Environment , 2008 .

[104]  James R. Emshoff,et al.  Design and use of computer simulation models , 1970 .

[105]  Raymond S. T. Lee Fuzzy-neuro approach to agent applications : from the AI perspective to modern ontology , 2006 .

[106]  Paul Hewson,et al.  Temporal GIS: Advanced Functions for Field-based Applications , 2003 .

[107]  José I. Barredo,et al.  Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria , 2004 .

[108]  Emilio Chuvieco,et al.  Integration of Linear Programming and GIS for Land-Use Modelling , 1993, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[109]  Stefano Tarantola,et al.  GLOBAL sensitivity analysis, GIS and multi‐criteria evaluation for a sustainable planning of a hazardous waste disposal site in Spain , 2006, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[110]  Alan Wilson Urban and regional models in geography and planning , 1974 .

[111]  Robert Gilmore Pontius,et al.  Using the Relative Operating Characteristic to Quantify Certainty in Prediction of Location of Land Cover Change in India , 2003, Trans. GIS.

[112]  A. M. Turing,et al.  Computing Machinery and Intelligence , 1950, The Philosophy of Artificial Intelligence.

[113]  A. Pavé Modélisation et simulation d'écosystèmes. Des modèles déterministes aux simulations à événements discrets , 1999 .

[114]  E. Jen Aperiodicity in one-dimensional cellular automata , 1991 .

[115]  Jacek Malczewski,et al.  GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis , 1999 .

[116]  L. Zadeh Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility , 1999 .

[117]  M. Anand,et al.  The Application of Markov Models in Recovery and Restoration , 2004 .

[118]  A. Tabeau,et al.  Linking models in land use simulation : application of the land use scanner to changes in agricultural area , 2005 .

[119]  Barredo Cano Jose,et al.  Sistemas de Información Geográfica y Evaluación Multicriterio en la Ordenación del Territorio (GIS and Multicriteria Evaluation Techniques for Urban and Regional Planning) , 2005 .

[120]  PETER H. VERBURG,et al.  Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model , 2002, Environmental management.

[121]  Tran Ngoc Trung,et al.  Participatory Simulation of Land-Use Changes in the Northern Mountains of Vietnam: the Combined Use of an Agent-Based Model, a Role-Playing Game, and a Geographic Information System , 2005 .

[122]  Suzana Dragicevic,et al.  A fuzzy set approach for modelling time in GIS , 2000, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[123]  P. Nijkamp,et al.  Multiregional economic modeling : practice and prospect , 1982 .

[124]  Lavalle Carlo,et al.  The MOLAND Model for Urban and Regional Growth Forecast. A tool for the Definition of Sustainable Development Paths. , 2004 .

[125]  Howard T. Odum,et al.  Trophic Structure and Productivity of Silver Springs, Florida , 1957 .

[126]  Michael Batty,et al.  New Developments in Urban Modeling: Simulation, Representation, and Visualization , 2003 .

[127]  C. Lavalle,et al.  Modelling dynamic spatial processes: simulation of urban future scenarios through cellular automata , 2003 .

[128]  Jean-Pierre Briot,et al.  Principes et architecture des systèmes multi-agents , 2000 .

[129]  James E. McHale,et al.  Cloudy crystal ball , 1960 .

[130]  R. G. Pontius Statistical Methods to Partition Effects of Quantity and Location During Comparison of Categorical Maps at Multiple Resolutions , 2002 .

[131]  Michael F. Goodchild,et al.  Gis and Environmental Modeling: Progress and Research Issues , 1996 .

[132]  Derek Thompson,et al.  Fundamentals of spatial information systems , 1992, A.P.I.C. series.

[133]  Modèles et systèmes multi-agents en écologie et en géographie : état de l'art et comparaison avec les approches classiques , 2000 .

[134]  B. Bouchon-Meunier,et al.  La logique floue et ses applications , 1995 .

[135]  P. Torrens,et al.  Geosimulation: Automata-based modeling of urban phenomena , 2004 .

[136]  Roger White,et al.  The Use of Constrained Cellular Automata for High-Resolution Modelling of Urban Land-Use Dynamics , 1997 .

[137]  M. V. Asselt,et al.  Cloudy crystal balls : an assessment of recent European and global scenario studies and models , 2000 .

[138]  R. Pontius,et al.  Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change , 2006 .

[139]  R. Gil Pontius,et al.  Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: application and validation for Costa Rica , 2001 .

[140]  José Ignacio Barredo Cano Sistemas de información geográfica y evaluación multicriterio en la ordenación del territorio , 1996 .

[141]  M. Goodchild,et al.  Geographic Information Systems and Science (second edition) , 2001 .

[142]  M. Goodchild,et al.  Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS , 2023 .

[143]  L. Musacchio Spatial Modeling of Forest Landscape Change: Approaches and Applications , 2000 .

[144]  Gul A. Agha,et al.  Towards a hierarchical taxonomy of autonomous agents , 2004, 2004 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (IEEE Cat. No.04CH37583).

[145]  Danielle J. Marceau,et al.  Modeling complex ecological systems: an introduction , 2002 .

[146]  R. Gil Pontius,et al.  Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA , 2001 .

[147]  J. Desachy,et al.  A fuzzy expert system for geographical problems: an agricultural application , 1995, Proceedings of 1995 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems..

[148]  Ricard V. Solé,et al.  Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics in ecology , 1998 .

[149]  François Bousquet,et al.  Comparaison de deux approches de modélisation des dynamiques spatiales par simulation multi-agents : les approches "spatiale" et "acteurs" , 1999 .

[150]  G. Langran Time in Geographic Information Systems , 1990 .