A GIS based Model of Urban Land Use Growth in Beijing

Based on the land use maps of Beijing in 1982, 1992 and 1997, its spatial and temporal process of urban land use growth was analyzed through spatial clustering and historical morphological approaches. The growth intensity index (GII), was employed instead of growth speed to describe the spatial differentiation of urban land use growth. Assisted by spatial analysis techniques of GIS, the average GIIs per year (AGIIPY) of 155 communes or towns during 1982~1992 and 1992~1997 were calculated and then classified through the Natural Breaks method, and the spatial differentiation maps of urban land use growth in Beijing during 1982~1992 and 1992~1997 were made. This paper found: (1) Industrial land is the most important element of urban land use growth in Beijing, and its contribution rate is on the increase, which is different from the general Western urban growth model driven by residential expansion. Since 1982, the industrial land had been keeping expanded at the average rate of 24~25 km 2 per year. It is extraordinary high especially during the 1992~1997 period, while that of residential land and urban land use dropped by 59% and 24%, to 3 4 km 2 per year and 29 8 km 2 per year respectively. Thus, the contribution rate of industrial land to urban land use growth increased from 64 91% in 1982~1992 to 80 67% in 1992~1997. (2) The spatial pattern of urban land use growth in Beijing was in distinct concentric sprawl. With the growth centers' gradual shift from the inner to outside, the new added urban land use were increased in distinct concentric zones and continually encroached upon the green spaces among the central mass and those “dispersed constellations”. The total area of green spaces for isolating built up areas in General Plan of Beijing, was 314 km 2 in 1958, reduced to 260 km 2 in 1983 and 160 km 2 in 1993. The concentric sprawl pattern seriously destroyed the spatial structure of “dispersed constellations” designed by the General Plan of Beijing, and also badly worsened the regional ecological environment. (3) The growth axes of urban land use in the southern and eastern part of Beijing had stepped into their decline period. The southern and eastern part of Beijing is located in the North China Plain and have advantages in urban development space, economic and transport communication, etc., so that they are determined as the main urban development areas and direction by the latest General Plan (1991~2010). But this paper found, the two major growth axes of urban land use along the Beijing Tian Jin and Beijing Shen Zhen highways in the southern and eastern part of Beijing, had stepped into their decline period during 1992~1997. Their AGIIPY decreased from 1 63 and 1 58 during 1982~1992 to 0 86 and 0 67 respectively, and the spatial growth pattern have also switched from vigorous axial expansion to fill in among axes.