Handling manipulated evidence.

Bayesian Networks have been advocated as useful tools to describe the relations of dependence/independence among random variables and relevant hypotheses in a crime case. Moreover, they have been applied to help the investigator structure the problem and evaluate the impact of the observed evidence, typically with respect to the hypothesis of guilt of a suspect. In this paper we describe a model to handle the possibility that one or more pieces of evidence have been manipulated in order to mislead the investigations. This method is based on causal inference models, although it is developed in a different, specific framework.

[1]  Frank Jensen,et al.  Analysis in HUGIN of data conflict , 1990, UAI.

[2]  David J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Bayesian analysis in expert systems , 1993 .

[3]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[4]  Colin Aitken,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Probabilistic Inference in Forensic Science , 2006 .

[5]  P. Holland Statistics and Causal Inference , 1985 .

[6]  A. Dawid Conditional Independence in Statistical Theory , 1979 .

[7]  David A. Schum,et al.  Analysis of Evidence: Frontmatter , 2005 .

[8]  D. Cox,et al.  Complex stochastic systems , 2000 .

[9]  A. Dawid Influence Diagrams for Causal Modelling and Inference , 2002 .

[10]  Adrian F. M. Smith,et al.  Bayesian Statistics 5. , 1998 .

[11]  Illtyd Trethowan Causality , 1938 .

[12]  A. Philip Dawid,et al.  USING A GRAPHICAL METHOD TO ASSIST THE EVALUATION OF COMPLICATED PATTERNS OF EVIDENCE , 1997 .

[13]  A. P. Dawid,et al.  Causal inference without counterfactuals (with Discussion) , 2000 .

[14]  Finn Verner Jensen,et al.  Cautious Propagation in Bayesian Networks , 1995, UAI.

[15]  David J. Spiegelhalter,et al.  Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems , 1999, Information Science and Statistics.

[16]  A. W. Kemp,et al.  Kendall's Advanced Theory of Statistics. , 1994 .

[17]  Jeremy E. Oakley,et al.  Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities , 2006 .

[18]  H. D. De Kanter [The philosophy of statistics]. , 1972, Ginecología y Obstetricia de México.

[19]  Steffen L. Lauritzen,et al.  Causal Inference from Graphical Models , 2001 .

[20]  A. Dawid,et al.  Forensic identification with imperfect evidence , 1998 .

[21]  Finn V. Jensen,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs , 2001, Statistics for Engineering and Information Science.

[22]  D. Schum The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning , 1994 .

[23]  Paolo Garbolino,et al.  Evaluation of scientific evidence using Bayesian networks. , 2002, Forensic science international.

[24]  J. Pearl [Bayesian Analysis in Expert Systems]: Comment: Graphical Models, Causality and Intervention , 1993 .

[25]  Dw Van Boxel,et al.  Probabilistic Expert Systems for Forensic Inference from Genetic Markers , 2002 .