Impact of Extensive Wind Power on Future Day-ahead Prices in the Nordic Electricity Market

Due to the current policies of the EU on climate change, the energy generation mix of the future power system will be dominated by variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind power. These sources have a highly intermittent output in real-time and will significantly affect the equilibrium of day-ahead (DA) markets. This work simulates the future DA prices of the Nord-Pool Elspot market considering high penetrations of VRE added to the existing generation structure. The historical demand and supply curves are reconstructed, and the new equilibrium follows the parallel shifting of the supply curve in accordance with the hourly generation level of VRE sources. Moreover, the effect of demand response (DR) is also investigated and renders the demand curve shift able in both directions. Results demonstrate that even a moderate level of VRE drives the prices into high volatility while activating DR alleviates the situation to some extent.