Does information drive trading in option strategies

We study trading in option strategies in the FTSE-100 index market. Trades in option strategies represent around 37% of the total number of trades and over 75% of the total trading volume in our sample. We find some evidence that order flow in volatility-sensitive option strategies contains information about future realized volatility. We do not find evidence that order flow in directionally-sensitive option strategies contains information about future returns. Overall, our evidence suggests that option strategies are used both by traders who possess non-public information about future volatility and by uninformed speculators who appear to follow unprofitable trend chasing strategies.

[1]  Stoll,et al.  Futures and Options: Theory and Applications , 1992 .

[2]  Jun Pan,et al.  Volatility Information Trading in the Option Market , 2005 .

[3]  Stewart D. Hodges,et al.  The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach , 2009 .

[4]  R. Welch,et al.  A Profitable Call Spreading Strategy on the CBOE , 1995 .

[5]  Christopher G. Lamoureux,et al.  Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects , 1990 .

[6]  Hung-Neng Lai,et al.  Do informed option investors predict stock returns? Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange , 2009 .

[7]  L. Ederington,et al.  Option Spread and Combination Trading , 2002 .

[8]  Tyler Shumway,et al.  Expected Option Returns , 2000 .

[9]  L. McMillan,et al.  McMillan on Options , 1996 .

[10]  D. Chance An Introduction to Derivatives and Risk Management , 2001 .

[11]  Ehud I. Ronn,et al.  The Box Spread Arbitrage Conditions: Theory, Tests, and Investment Strategies , 1989 .

[12]  J. Hull Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives , 1989 .

[13]  R. Kolb Futures, Options, and Swaps , 1994 .

[14]  Vertical Spread Design , 2005 .

[15]  Charles M. C. Lee,et al.  Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data , 1991 .

[16]  Richard M. Bookstaber Option Pricing and Investment Strategies , 1991 .

[17]  Piet M. A. Eichholtz,et al.  Option trading and individual investor performance , 2009 .

[18]  T. W. Miller,et al.  Box Spread Arbitrage Profits following the 1987 Market Crash: Real or Illusory? , 1997, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

[19]  Alessio Saretto,et al.  Option Strategies: Good Deals and Margin Calls , 2006 .

[20]  Sheldon Natenberg,et al.  Option Volatility & Pricing: Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques , 1988 .

[21]  Lawrence G. McMillan,et al.  Options as a Strategic Investment , 1986 .

[22]  Volatility Trade Design , 2002 .

[23]  M. Parkinson The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return , 1980 .

[24]  Chenchuramaiah T. Bathala The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices , 2007 .

[25]  Chuang-Chang Chang,et al.  Information content of options trading volume for future volatility: Evidence from the Taiwan options market. , 2010 .