An overview of the Earth system science of solar geoengineering

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to cool the Earth by increasing the reflection of sunlight back to space, for example, by injecting reflective aerosol particles (or their precursors) into the lower stratosphere. Such proposed techniques would not be able to substitute for mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a response to the risks of climate change, as they would only mask some of the effects of global warming. They might, however, eventually be applied as a complementary approach to reduce climate risks. Thus, the Earth system consequences of solar geoengineering are central to understanding its potentials and risks. Here we review the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge about stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection and an idealized proxy for this, ‘sunshade geoengineering,’ in which the intensity of incoming sunlight is directly reduced in models. Studies are consistent in suggesting that sunshade geoengineering and stratospheric aerosol injection would generally offset the climate effects of elevated GHG concentrations. However, it is clear that a solar geoengineered climate would be novel in some respects, one example being a notably reduced hydrological cycle intensity. Moreover, we provide an overview of nonclimatic aspects of the response to stratospheric aerosol injection, for example, its effect on ozone, and the uncertainties around its consequences. We also consider the issues raised by the partial control over the climate that solar geoengineering would allow. Finally, this overview highlights some key research gaps in need of being resolved to provide sound basis for guidance of future decisions around solar geoengineering. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:815–833. doi: 10.1002/wcc.423

[1]  S. Chapman The photochemistry of atmospheric oxygen , 1942 .

[2]  A. Tuck,et al.  Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and stratospheric ozone , 1978, Nature.

[3]  D. Schindler,et al.  Effects of Acid Rain on Freshwater Ecosystems , 1988, Science.

[4]  J. Latham,et al.  Control of global warming? , 1990, Nature.

[5]  K. Sassen Evidence for Liquid-Phase Cirrus Cloud Formation from Volcanic Aerosols: Climatic Implications , 1992, Science.

[6]  James M. Russell,et al.  Ozone and temperature changes in the stratosphere following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo , 1995 .

[7]  J. Holton,et al.  Stratosphere‐troposphere exchange , 1995 .

[8]  M. McCormick,et al.  Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption , 1995, Nature.

[9]  R. Betts,et al.  The impact of new land surface physics on the GCM simulation of climate and climate sensitivity , 1999 .

[10]  D. Wuebbles,et al.  Influence of Geoengineered Climate on the Terrestrial Biosphere , 2003, Environmental management.

[11]  J. Hansen,et al.  Efficacy of climate forcings , 2005 .

[12]  R. Angel Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1) , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[13]  B. Soden,et al.  Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming , 2006 .

[14]  P. Crutzen Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma? , 2006 .

[15]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Transient climate–carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[16]  D. Koch,et al.  Global impacts of aerosols from particular source regions and sectors , 2007 .

[17]  P. Rasch,et al.  An overview of geoengineering of climate using stratospheric sulphate aerosols , 2008, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[18]  Georgiy L. Stenchikov,et al.  Regional climate responses to geoengineering with tropical and Arctic SO2 injections , 2008 .

[19]  Paul J. Valdes,et al.  “Sunshade World”: A fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering , 2008 .

[20]  Simone Tilmes,et al.  The Sensitivity of Polar Ozone Depletion to Proposed Geoengineering Schemes , 2008, Science.

[21]  Ben Kravitz,et al.  Benefits, risks, and costs of stratospheric geoengineering , 2009 .

[22]  D. Murphy Effect of stratospheric aerosols on direct sunlight and implications for concentrating solar power. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[23]  William Finnegan,et al.  Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming , 2009 .

[24]  David Archer,et al.  Geoengineering climate by stratospheric sulfur injections: Earth system vulnerability to technological failure , 2009 .

[25]  P. Irvine,et al.  The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered, high CO2 world , 2009 .

[26]  Adam A. Scaife,et al.  Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate , 2009 .

[27]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Sensitivity of ocean acidification to geoengineered climate stabilization , 2009 .

[28]  K. Keller,et al.  The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering , 2009 .

[29]  V. Brovkin,et al.  Atmospheric lifetime of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide , 2009 .

[30]  S. Solomon,et al.  Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[31]  P. Cox,et al.  Impact of changes in diffuse radiation on the global land carbon sink , 2009, Nature.

[32]  Paul J. Valdes,et al.  Tackling Regional Climate Change By Leaf Albedo Bio-geoengineering , 2009, Current Biology.

[33]  B. Dewitte,et al.  Impact of atmospheric coastal jet off central Chile on sea surface temperature from satellite observations (2000–2007) , 2009 .

[34]  Jonathan M. Gregory,et al.  A Surface Energy Perspective on Climate Change , 2009 .

[35]  Martin Jakobsson,et al.  Sensitivity of the Late Saalian (140 kyrs BP) and LGM (21 kyrs BP) Eurasian ice sheet surface mass balance to vegetation feedbacks , 2009 .

[36]  Andrew Gettelman,et al.  Impact of geoengineered aerosols on the troposphere and stratosphere , 2009 .

[37]  D. Weisenstein,et al.  The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone , 2009 .

[38]  S. Jevrejeva,et al.  Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  A. Ganopolski,et al.  Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet , 2010 .

[40]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Geoengineering as an optimization problem , 2010 .

[41]  B. Kravitz,et al.  Correction to “Sulfuric acid deposition from stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate aerosols” , 2010 .

[42]  Gareth Davies,et al.  Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty , 2010 .

[43]  W. Landman Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .

[44]  Anne Socquet,et al.  Sequence of rifting in Afar, Manda‐Hararo rift, Ethiopia, 2005–2009: Time‐space evolution and interactions between dikes from interferometric synthetic aperture radar and static stress change modeling , 2010 .

[45]  Caspar M. Ammann,et al.  Climate engineering through artificial enhancement of natural forcings: Magnitudes and implied consequences , 2010 .

[46]  D. Weisenstein,et al.  Efficient formation of stratospheric aerosol for climate engineering by emission of condensible vapor from aircraft , 2010 .

[47]  Nicolas Bellouin,et al.  Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change , 2010 .

[48]  Jeffrey M. Warren,et al.  CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[49]  C. Timmreck,et al.  The dependency of geoengineered sulfate aerosol on the emission strategy , 2011 .

[50]  K. Taylor,et al.  The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2011 .

[51]  Andrew Charlton-Perez,et al.  Stratospheric heating by potential geoengineering aerosols , 2011 .

[52]  R. Allan,et al.  Energetic Constraints on Precipitation Under Climate Change , 2012, Surveys in Geophysics.

[53]  B. Kravitz,et al.  Geoengineering: Whiter skies? , 2011 .

[54]  K. Trenberth Changes in precipitation with climate change , 2011 .

[55]  A simple model to account for regional inequalities in the effectiveness of solar radiation management , 2012, Climatic Change.

[56]  Andy Ridgwell,et al.  Climatic effects of surface albedo geoengineering , 2011 .

[57]  Ryan L. Sriver,et al.  Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management , 2012 .

[58]  B. Kravitz,et al.  Sensitivity of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon to aerosol size and altitude of injection , 2012 .

[59]  Rolando R. Garcia,et al.  Impact of very short-lived halogens on stratospheric ozone abundance and UV radiation in a geo-engineered atmosphere , 2012 .

[60]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Crop yields in a geoengineered climate , 2012 .

[61]  P. Rasch,et al.  The long-term policy context for solar radiation management , 2013, Climatic Change.

[62]  P. Davidson,et al.  Lifting options for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering: advantages of tethered balloon systems , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[63]  A. Robock,et al.  Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions , 2012 .

[64]  U. Lohmann,et al.  Effects of stratospheric sulfate aerosol geo‐engineering on cirrus clouds , 2012 .

[65]  David William Keith,et al.  Cost analysis of stratospheric albedo modification delivery systems , 2012 .

[66]  R. A. Cox,et al.  Stratospheric aerosol particles and solar-radiation management , 2012 .

[67]  Jason Lowe,et al.  Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[68]  J. M. English,et al.  Microphysical simulations of sulfur burdens from stratospheric sulfur geoengineering , 2012 .

[69]  P. Rasch,et al.  Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2013 .

[70]  T. McVicar,et al.  Impact of CO2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe's warm, arid environments , 2013 .

[71]  N. McDowell,et al.  Sensitivity of plants to changing atmospheric CO2 concentration: from the geological past to the next century. , 2013, The New phytologist.

[72]  C. Preston Ethics and geoengineering: reviewing the moral issues raised by solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal , 2020, The Ethics of Nanotechnology, Geoengineering and Clean Energy.

[73]  Dongxiao Zhang,et al.  Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations , 2013 .

[74]  Ben Kravitz,et al.  A multimodel examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment , 2013 .

[75]  D. Weisenstein,et al.  Microphysical and radiative changes in cirrus clouds by geoengineering the stratosphere , 2013 .

[76]  S. Baum,et al.  Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse , 2013, Environment Systems & Decisions.

[77]  Douglas G. MacMartin,et al.  Dynamics of the coupled human–climate system resulting from closed-loop control of solar geoengineering , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[78]  C. Bretherton,et al.  Clouds and Aerosols , 2013 .

[79]  Andrew S. Jones,et al.  Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall , 2013 .

[80]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Management of trade-offs in geoengineering through optimal choice of non-uniform radiative forcing , 2013 .

[81]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2013 .

[82]  Hauke Schmidt,et al.  Solar irradiance reduction via climate engineering: Impact of different techniques on the energy balance and the hydrological cycle , 2013 .

[83]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2013 .

[84]  P. Irvine,et al.  Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high‐CO2 world , 2013 .

[85]  Amy H. Butler,et al.  On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low‐top versions of the CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[86]  D. MacMartin,et al.  Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs , 2013, Climatic Change.

[87]  Alan D. Lopez,et al.  A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 , 2012, The Lancet.

[88]  A. Robock CHAPTER 7:Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering , 2014 .

[89]  F. Piontek,et al.  The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[90]  H. Savenije,et al.  Uncertainties in transpiration estimates , 2014, Nature.

[91]  Philip J. Rasch,et al.  Explicit feedback and the management of uncertainty in meeting climate objectives with solar geoengineering , 2014 .

[92]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison of the GeoMIP ensemble and a perturbed parameter ensemble , 2014 .

[93]  V. Aquila,et al.  Stratospheric ozone response to sulfate geoengineering: Results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2014 .

[94]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) , 2014 .

[95]  O. Boucher,et al.  Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario , 2014 .

[96]  David P. Keller,et al.  Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario , 2014, Nature Communications.

[97]  M. Knörnschild,et al.  Corrigendum: Bats host major mammalian paramyxoviruses , 2014, Nature Communications.

[98]  Shingo Watanabe,et al.  A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering , 2014 .

[99]  Alan Robock,et al.  Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering , 2015 .

[100]  Ken Caldeira,et al.  Modeling of solar radiation management: a comparison of simulations using reduced solar constant and stratospheric sulphate aerosols , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[101]  E. Highwood,et al.  Weakened tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to geoengineering , 2014 .

[102]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks , 2014 .

[103]  Luke D. Oman,et al.  Modifications of the quasi‐biennial oscillation by a geoengineering perturbation of the stratospheric aerosol layer , 2014 .

[104]  S. Solomon,et al.  Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone data set , 2014 .

[105]  Ulrike Niemeier,et al.  What is the limit of climate engineering by stratospheric injection of SO 2 , 2015 .

[106]  Mark Lawrence,et al.  The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP , 2015 .

[107]  Jim Haywood,et al.  Climatic impacts of stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection , 2015 .

[108]  P. Cox,et al.  Coral bleaching under unconventional scenarios of climate warming and ocean acidification , 2015 .

[109]  P. Rasch,et al.  On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty , 2015 .

[110]  D. Weisenstein,et al.  Solar geoengineering using solid aerosol in the stratosphere , 2015 .

[111]  Sebastian D. Eastham,et al.  Human health impacts of high altitude emissions , 2015 .

[112]  Maik Renner,et al.  The hydrological sensitivity to global warming and solar geoengineering derived from thermodynamic constraints , 2015 .

[113]  E. Highwood,et al.  Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors and sulfate and titania aerosols , 2015 .

[114]  H. Muri,et al.  An economic evaluation of solar radiation management. , 2015, The Science of the total environment.

[115]  Klaus Keller,et al.  How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet? , 2015 .

[116]  C. Bitz,et al.  Inability of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to preserve the West Antarctic Ice Sheet , 2015 .

[117]  Philip J. Rasch,et al.  Geoengineering as a design problem , 2015 .

[118]  O. Morton The Planet Remade: How Geoengineering Could Change the World , 2015 .

[119]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  The European Transdisciplinary Assessment of Climate Engineering (EuTRACE): Removing Greenhouse Gases from the Atmosphere and Reflecting Sunlight away from Earth , 2015 .

[120]  A. Grini,et al.  Impact of idealized future stratospheric aerosol injection on the large‐scale ocean and land carbon cycles , 2016 .

[121]  Ryan R. Neely,et al.  Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate , 2016 .

[122]  Angus J. Ferraro,et al.  Quantifying the temperature-independent effect of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on global-mean precipitation in a multi-model ensemble , 2016 .