Scientific Uses of Random Drilling Models

to generate possible histories of exploration for oil within the land area of the contiguous United States. The actual historical record of exploration is then shown to correspond in general form for long periods to a random search using a system of exploration with relatively constant effectiveness. The correspondence between the model and history suggests that the powerful tools of probability theory can be useful in analyses of future success in exploration, volume of petroleum reserves, and other matters of deep national concern. The beginnings of a probabilistic analysis of some aspects of petroleum exploration