The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.

[1]  H. Jacquemyn,et al.  Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species , 2002 .

[2]  E. Seyoum,et al.  Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) on Coffea arabica L. in Southwestern Ethiopia , 2005 .

[3]  I. Friis,et al.  ATLAS OF THE POTENTIAL VEGETATION OF ETHIOPIA , 2010 .

[4]  R. Hijmans,et al.  Cross-validation of species distribution models: removing spatial sorting bias and calibration with a null model. , 2012, Ecology.

[5]  C. Ellis.  Predicting the biodiversity response to climate change: challenges and advances , 2011 .

[6]  M. Schwartz,et al.  Using species distribution models to predict new occurrences for rare plants , 2009 .

[7]  André Faaij,et al.  (Mitigation) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the , 2012 .

[8]  Lukas H. Meyer,et al.  Summary for Policymakers , 2022, The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

[9]  T. Demel.  History, botany and ecological requirements of coffee , 1999 .

[10]  Miroslav Dudík,et al.  Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation , 2008 .

[11]  José C. Ramalho,et al.  Impacts of drought and temperature stress on coffee physiology and production: a review , 2006 .

[12]  Demel Teketay,et al.  History, botany and ecological requirements of coffee , 1998 .

[13]  Á. Felicísimo,et al.  Profile or group discriminative techniques? Generating reliable species distribution models using pseudo‐absences and target‐group absences from natural history collections , 2010 .

[14]  F. Damatta.  Exploring drought tolerance in coffee: a physiological approach with some insights for plant breeding , 2004 .

[15]  Robert P. Anderson,et al.  Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions , 2006 .

[16]  N. Kingston,et al.  World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) , 2013 .

[17]  Â. P. D. Camargo.  Florescimento e frutificação de café arábica nas diferentes regiões (cafeeiras) do Brasil , 1985 .

[18]  Shombe N. Hassan,et al.  The Aftermath of Environmental Disturbance on the Critically Endangered Coffea kihansiensis in the Southern Udzungwa Mountains, Tanzania , 2011 .

[19]  J. Elith,et al.  Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time , 2009 .

[20]  O. Edenhofer,et al.  Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective , 2007 .

[21]  N. Brummitt,et al.  A Global Assessment of Distribution, Diversity, Endemism, and Taxonomic Effort in the Rubiaceae1 , 2009 .

[22]  Christian Borgemeister,et al.  Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest , 2009, PloS one.

[23]  Mark New,et al.  Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[24]  M. Labuschagne,et al.  AFLP analysis among Ethiopian arabica coffee genotypes , 2008 .

[25]  L. Hein,et al.  The economic value of coffee (Coffea arabica) genetic resources , 2006 .

[26]  Dan L Warren,et al.  Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria. , 2011, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[27]  M. Camargo,et al.  The impact of climatic variability and climate change on arabic coffee crop in Brazil , 2010 .

[28]  R. Govaerts,et al.  An annotated taxonomic conspectus of the genus Coffea (Rubiaceae) , 2006 .

[29]  John F. B. Mitchell,et al.  The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments , 2000 .

[30]  Andy Jarvis,et al.  Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method Decision and Policy Analysis Working Paper No. 1 , 2010 .

[31]  C. Montagnon,et al.  Multivariate analysis of phenotypic diversity of Coffea arabica , 1996, Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution.

[32]  J. Berthaud,et al.  Genetic diversity of wild coffee (Coffea arabica L.) using molecular markers , 2001, Euphytica.

[33]  B. Graae,et al.  Forest herbs in the face of global change: a single-species-multiple-threats approach for Anemone nemorosa. , 2010 .

[34]  C. Borgemeister,et al.  Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa , 2011, PloS one.

[35]  Comparison of SSR and AFLP analysis for genetic diversity assessment of Ethiopian arabica coffee genotypes , 2009 .

[36]  J. L. Parra,et al.  Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas , 2005 .

[37]  Gary Gereffi,et al.  Sustainable Product Indexing: Navigating the Challenge of Ecolabeling , 2010 .

[38]  R. Guralnick,et al.  BioGeomancer: Automated Georeferencing to Map the World's Biodiversity Data , 2006, PLoS biology.

[39]  H. Jacquemyn,et al.  Low recruitment across life stages partly accounts for the slow colonization of forest herbs , 2009 .

[40]  B. Bertrand,et al.  The origin of cultivated Coffea arabica L. varieties revealed by AFLP and SSR markers , 2002, Theoretical and Applied Genetics.

[41]  Ken Thompson,et al.  Climate change and plant regeneration from seed , 2011 .

[42]  Vincent R. Gray.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary for Policymakers , 2007 .

[43]  Hilton Silveira Pinto,et al.  Impact assessment study of climate change on agricultural zoning , 2006 .

[44]  M. White,et al.  How Useful Are Species Distribution Models for Managing Biodiversity under Future Climates , 2010 .

[45]  W. Thuiller,et al.  Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change. , 2009, Ecology.

[46]  M. Combes,et al.  Genetic diversity for RAPD markers between cultivated and wild accessions of Coffea arabica , 2004, Euphytica.

[47]  C. Schmitt.  Montane rainforest with wild Coffea arabica in the Bonga region (SW Ethiopia) : plant diversity, wild coffee management and implications for conservation , 2006 .

[48]  U. Steiner,et al.  Genetic diversity in the coffee wilt pathogen (Gibberella xylarioides) populations: differentiation by host specialization and RAPD analysis. , 2005 .

[49]  B. Bertrand,et al.  Current status of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) genetic resources in Ethiopia: implications for conservation , 2008, Genetic Resources and Crop Evolution.

[50]  Angela Lee,et al.  Perspectives on … Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc , 1997 .

[51]  T. Dawson,et al.  Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? , 2003 .

[52]  P. Baker,et al.  Global Warming: the impact on global coffee , 2007 .

[53]  A. Hampe.  Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide , 2004 .

[54]  A. Dobson,et al.  Projected Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Global Diversity of Birds , 2007, PLoS biology.