Population Evacuation: Assessing Spatial Variability in Geophysical Risk and Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

Developing an effective evacuation strategy for hurricane zones presents challenges to emergency planners because of spatial differences in geophysical risk and social vulnerability. This study examines spatial variability in evacuation assistance needs as related to the hurricane hazard. Two quantitative indicators are developed: a geophysical risk index, based on National Hurricane Center and National Flood Insurance Program data, and a social vulnerability index, based on census information. These indices are combined to determine spatial patterns of evacuation assistance needs in Hillsborough County, Florida. Four evacuation dimensions are analyzed: population traits and building structures, differential access to resources, special evacuation needs, and a combination of variables. Results indicate that geophysical risk and social vulnerability can produce different spatial patterns that complicate emergency management. Different measures of social vulnerability also confound evacuation strategies and can result in ineffective practices. It is argued that careful consideration be given to the characteristics of local populations.

[1]  David J. Odeh.  Natural Hazards Vulnerability Assessment for Statewide Mitigation Planning in Rhode Island , 2002 .

[2]  E. Sheppard,et al.  GIS-based measures of environmental equity: Exploring their sensitivity and significance , 1999, Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology.

[3]  David J. Forkenbrock,et al.  Using GIS to Assess the Environmental Justice Consequences of Transportation System Changes , 1999, Trans. GIS.

[4]  Nathan J. Wood,et al.  Vulnerability Assessment of a Port and Harbor Community to Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards: Integrating Technical Expert and Stakeholder Input , 2002 .

[5]  B. Wisner,et al.  At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability and Disasters , 1996 .

[6]  S. Cutter.  Societal Responses to Environmental Hazards. , 1996 .

[7]  S. Cutter.  Vulnerability to environmental hazards , 1996 .

[8]  S. R. Jammalamadaka,et al.  Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk , 1999 .

[9]  Kenneth Hewitt,et al.  Regions of Risk: A Geographical Introduction to Disasters , 1997 .

[10]  Julio Kuroiwa,et al.  Sustainable Cities, a Regional Seismic Scenario, and the 6-23-2001 Arequipa Peru Earthquake , 2002 .

[11]  B. Montz,et al.  Hazardousness of Location: Critical Facilities in the Tampa Bay Region , 1998 .

[12]  Jeanne X. Kasperson,et al.  Regions at risk : comparisons of threatened environments , 1996 .

[13]  David Stein,et al.  Community vulnerability assessment tool methodology , 2002 .

[14]  Stephen O. Bender.  Development and Use of Natural Hazard Vulnerability-Assessment Techniques in the Americas , 2002 .

[15]  Samuel J. Ratick,et al.  Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storms: The Case of Revere, MA., USA , 1998 .

[16]  P. Slovic.  Perception of risk. , 1987, Science.

[17]  Burrell E. Montz,et al.  Gis and Social Vulnerability Analysis , 2001 .

[18]  H. Kunreuther,et al.  The hidden costs of coastal hazards: Implications for risk assessment and mitigation , 2000 .

[19]  Graham A. Tobin,et al.  Natural Hazards: Explanation and Integration , 1997 .

[20]  Daanish Mustafa,et al.  Structural Causes of Vulnerability to Flood Hazard in , 1998 .

[21]  T. Webler,et al.  Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action , 2001 .

[22]  K. Dow,et al.  Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change , 1992 .

[23]  G. F. Hepner,et al.  A GIS-based sensitivity analysis of community vulnerability to hazardous contaminants on the Mexico/U.S. border , 1995 .

[24]  Ian Burton,et al.  The hazardousness of a place: A regional ecology of damaging events , 1971 .

[25]  C. J. Neumann.  The national hurricane center risk analysis program (HURISK) , 1987 .

[26]  Howard Kunreuther,et al.  Paying the price : the status and role of insurance against natural disasters in the United States , 2000 .

[27]  Richard L. Church,et al.  Modelling Community Evacuation Vulnerability Using GIS , 1997, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[28]  Gordon R. Keller.  Rural Roads Vulnerability Reduction Assessment, Mitigation Measures, and Training , 2002 .

[29]  Jerry T. Mitchell,et al.  Revealing the Vulnerability of People and Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina , 2000 .

[30]  T. Cova,et al.  Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface , 2002 .