A Bayesian approach for time-delay estimation of a managed river reach in imposed experimental conditions

Abstract This article deals with the problem of estimating time-delays in the experimental modelling of river reaches managed by hydroelectric power plants. The purpose of the article is to estimate the reach time-delay from the data collected in imposed experimental conditions. The modelling of the managed river reach shows that the feedforward control performed by the operator “hides” the reach time-delay in the transfer function of the closed-loop system. So, classical time-delay estimation methods are inappropriate. The proposed solution considers the delay estimation as a problem of detecting a discontinuity in impulse response. A Bayesian approach is proposed to detect the delay and to estimate the impulse response from production data. This method is applied to one-day data sets supplied over one year in order to show its efficiency.