Time series citation data: the Nobel Prize in economics

Citation time series are not easy to compile from the most popular databases. The Data for Research service of the JSTOR journal database is a large and high-quality sample of citations, weighted towards humanities and social sciences. It provides time series citation data over many decades, back to the origins of the constituent journals. The citation trajectories of Nobel Prize winners in economics are analyzed here from 1930 to 2005. They are described mathematically by means of the Bass model of the diffusion of innovations. A bell-shaped curve provides a good fit with most prize winner citation trajectories, and suggests that economic knowledge follows the typical innovation cycle of adoption, peak, and decline within scholarly careers and shortly afterwards. Several variant trajectories are described.

[1]  Anne-Wil Harzing,et al.  The Publish or Perish Book: Your guide to effective and responsible citation analysis , 2010 .

[2]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance: A Reexamination , 1985 .

[3]  Arthur M. Diamond.  Citation Counts for Nobel Prize Winners in Economics , 1988 .

[4]  Ronald Snyder,et al.  JSTOR - Data for Research , 2009, ECDL.

[5]  Stephen Ferguson.  JSTOR: A History , 2004, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[6]  Does Mandeville Matter Today , 1985 .

[7]  Pedro Garcia Duarte,et al.  Microfoundations reconsidered : the relationship of micro and macroeconomics in historical perspective , 2012 .

[8]  H. Pemberton.  The Curve of Culture Diffusion Rate , 1936 .

[9]  Hendrik P. van Dalen,et al.  The Golden Age of Nobel Economists , 1999 .

[10]  John B. Davis.  Problems in Using the Social Sciences Citation Index to Rank Economics Journals , 1998 .

[11]  G. Stigler.  Does Economics Have a Useful Past , 1969 .

[12]  F. Bass.  A new product growth model for consumer durables , 1976 .

[13]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  A simple algebraic estimation procedure for innovation diffusion models of new product acceptance , 1986 .

[14]  Stephen D. Bruestle,et al.  Trend of Subjects Published in Economics Journals 1969-2007 , 2011 .

[15]  J. Nicolaisen.  Bibliometrics and Citation Analysis: From the Science Citation Index to Cybermetrics , 2010 .

[16]  Ronald Rousseau,et al.  Definitions of time series in citation analysis with special attention to the h-index , 2008, J. Informetrics.

[17]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of Innovations , 1964 .

[18]  Marshall H. Medoff,et al.  A Citation-Based Analysis of Economists and Economics Programs , 1996 .

[19]  N. Bailey.  The mathematical theory of epidemics , 1957 .

[20]  Kuei-Kuei Lai,et al.  Exploring technology diffusion and classification of business methods: Using the patent citation network , 2009 .

[21]  Frank M. Bass,et al.  A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables , 2004, Manag. Sci..

[22]  Rex L. Cottle,et al.  Faculty Ratings of Major Economics Departments by Citations: An Extension , 1986 .

[23]  Marshall H. Medoff,et al.  The Ranking of Economists. , 1989 .

[24]  Roger C. Schonfeld.  JSTOR: A History , 2003 .

[25]  Juan Gorraiz,et al.  Galton 2011 revisited: a bibliometric journey in the footprints of a universal genius , 2011, Scientometrics.

[26]  Robert A. Peterson,et al.  Models for innovation diffusion , 1985 .

[27]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance , 1982 .

[28]  魏屹东,et al.  Scientometrics , 2018, Encyclopedia of Big Data.

[29]  David M. Levy,et al.  The Half-Life of Dead Economists , 1989 .

[30]  Danielle Colbert-Lewis,et al.  Citation searching and bibliometric measures Resources for ranking and tracking , 2011 .

[31]  Gary L. Lilien,et al.  Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning , 1998 .

[32]  R. Dixon,et al.  Hybrid Corn Revisited , 1980 .

[33]  E. Rogers,et al.  Diffusion of innovations , 1964, Encyclopedia of Sport Management.

[34]  Claudio Castellano,et al.  Universality of citation distributions: Toward an objective measure of scientific impact , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[35]  K. Hoover.  Microfoundational Programs , 2010 .

[36]  Vijay Mahajan,et al.  New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research: , 1990 .

[37]  R. H. Mabry,et al.  Relative Significance of Journals, Authors, and Articles Cited in Financial Research , 1994 .

[38]  N. Meade,et al.  Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation – A 25-year review , 2006 .

[39]  Charlotte H. Mason,et al.  Technical Note---Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models , 1986 .

[40]  Donald R. Lehmann,et al.  A Meta-Analysis of Applications of Diffusion Models , 1990 .

[41]  Panos Constantopoulos,et al.  Research and Advanced Technology for Digital Libraries , 2001, Lecture Notes in Computer Science.

[42]  Vincent Larivière,et al.  Benchmarking scientific output in the social sciences and humanities: The limits of existing databases , 2006, Scientometrics.