Parameter Estimation in Stochastic Differential Equations

Financial processes as processes in nature, are subject to stochastic fluctuations. Stochastic differential equations turn out to be an advantageous representation of such noisy, real-world problems, and together with their identification, they play an important role in the sectors of finance, but also in physics and biotechnology. These equations, however, are often hard to represent and to resolve. Thus we express them in a simplified manner of approximation by discretization and additive models based on splines. This defines a trilevel problem consisting of an optimization and a representation problem (portfolio optimization), and a parameter estimation (Weber et al. Financial Regression and Organization. In: Special Issue on Optimization in Finance, DCDIS-B, 2010). Two types of parameters dependency, linear and nonlinear, are considered by constructing a penalized residual sum of squares and investigating the related Tikhonov regularization problem for the first one. In the nonlinear case Gauss–Newton’s method and Levenberg–Marquardt’s method are employed in determining the iteration steps. Both cases are treated using continuous optimization techniques by the elegant framework of conic quadratic programming. These convex problems are well-structured, hence, allowing the use of the efficient interior point methods. Furthermore, we present nonparametric and related methods, and introduce into research done at the moment in our research groups which ends with a conclusion.

[1]  Rüdiger U. Seydel Tools for Computational Finance , 2002 .

[2]  F. Jarre Interior-point methods for convex programming , 1992 .

[3]  Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber,et al.  Generalized semi-infinite optimization and related topics , 1999 .

[4]  Klaus Ritter,et al.  Free-knot spline approximation of stochastic processes , 2007, J. Complex..

[5]  Aharon Ben-Tal,et al.  Lectures on modern convex optimization , 1987 .

[6]  P. James McLellan,et al.  Parameter estimation in continuous-time dynamic models using principal differential analysis , 2006, Comput. Chem. Eng..

[7]  David G. Luenberger,et al.  Linear and nonlinear programming , 1984 .

[8]  Chin-Shang Li,et al.  A regression spline model for developmental toxicity data. , 2006, Toxicological sciences : an official journal of the Society of Toxicology.

[9]  Nicolas Molinari,et al.  Bounded optimal knots for regression splines , 2004, Comput. Stat. Data Anal..

[10]  Thomas C. M. Lee,et al.  On algorithms for ordinary least squares regression spline fitting: A comparative study , 2002 .

[11]  B. Øksendal Stochastic differential equations : an introduction with applications , 1987 .

[12]  Trevor Hastie,et al.  The Elements of Statistical Learning , 2001 .

[13]  P. Taylan,et al.  New approaches to regression by generalized additive models and continuous optimization for modern applications in finance, science and technology , 2007 .

[14]  C. R. Deboor,et al.  A practical guide to splines , 1978 .

[15]  K. Burrage,et al.  High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations , 1996 .

[16]  A. Bergstrom The Estimation of Open Higher-Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models with Mixed Stock and Flow Data , 1986, Econometric Theory.

[17]  P. Taylan,et al.  NEW APPROACHES TO REGRESSION IN FINANCIAL MATHEMATICS BY ADDITIVE MODELS , 2007 .

[18]  A. Bergstrom Gaussian Estimation of Structural Parameters in Higher Order Continuous Time Dynamic Models , 1983 .

[19]  N. Brunel Parameter estimation of ODE’s via nonparametric estimators , 2007, 0710.4190.

[20]  Umberto Picchini,et al.  Modeling the euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp by stochastic differential equations , 2006, Journal of mathematical biology.

[21]  Robert E Kass,et al.  An Implementation of Bayesian Adaptive Regression Splines (BARS) in C with S and R Wrappers. , 2008, Journal of statistical software.

[22]  A. Irturk,et al.  Term Structure of Interest Rates , 2006 .

[23]  A. Bergstrom CONTINUOUS TIME STOCHASTIC MODELS AND ISSUES OF AGGREGATION OVER TIME , 1984 .

[24]  Ralf Korn,et al.  Option Pricing and Portfolio Optimization: Modern Methods of Financial Mathematics , 2001 .

[25]  G. Weber On the topology of parametric optimal control , 1998, The Journal of the Australian Mathematical Society. Series B. Applied Mathematics.

[26]  P. Kloeden,et al.  Numerical Solution of Sde Through Computer Experiments , 1993 .

[27]  Eduardo S. Schwartz,et al.  Conditional Predictions of Bond Prices and Returns , 1980 .

[28]  Carl de Boor,et al.  A Practical Guide to Splines , 1978, Applied Mathematical Sciences.

[29]  James O. Ramsay,et al.  Principal differential analysis : Data reduction by differential operators , 1996 .

[30]  Min Li,et al.  A Robust Approach to the Interest Rate Term Structure Estimation , 2006 .

[31]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Linear Smoothers and Additive Models , 1989 .

[32]  T. Hastie,et al.  Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand ’ s freshwater diadromous fish , 2005 .

[33]  Ramón Gutiérrez-Sánchez,et al.  Trend analysis and computational statistical estimation in a stochastic Rayleigh model: Simulation and application , 2008, Math. Comput. Simul..

[34]  K. Nowman,et al.  Gaussian Estimation of Single‐Factor Continuous Time Models of The Term Structure of Interest Rates , 1997 .

[35]  R. C. Merton,et al.  AN INTERTEMPORAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL , 1973 .

[36]  Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber,et al.  FINANCIAL REGRESSION AND ORGANIZATION , 2009 .

[37]  Narendra Karmarkar,et al.  A new polynomial-time algorithm for linear programming , 1984, Comb..

[38]  S. Lang,et al.  Bayesian P-Splines , 2004 .

[39]  Jaya P. N. Bishwal,et al.  Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations , 2007 .

[40]  B. Silverman,et al.  Functional Data Analysis , 1997 .

[41]  Danny C. Sorensen,et al.  P-Splines Using Derivative Information , 2010, Multiscale Model. Simul..

[42]  J. Friedman,et al.  Projection Pursuit Regression , 1981 .

[43]  Stephen A. Ross,et al.  An Analysis of Variable Rate Loan Contracts , 1980 .

[44]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Applying the EKF to stochastic differential equations with level effects , 2001, Autom..

[45]  Phil Howlett,et al.  On the constructive approximation of non-linear operators in the modelling of dynamical systems , 1997 .

[46]  G. Weber On the Topology of Generalized Semi-Inflnite Optimization , 2002 .

[47]  Jiguo Cao,et al.  Parameter estimation for differential equations: a generalized smoothing approach , 2007 .

[48]  Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber,et al.  Organization in Finance Prepared by Stochastic Differential Equations with Additive and Nonlinear Models and Continuous Optimization , 2008 .

[49]  Claire S. Adjiman,et al.  An algorithm for the estimation of parameters in models with stochastic differential equations , 2008 .

[50]  R. Tibshirani,et al.  Generalized additive models for medical research , 1986, Statistical methods in medical research.

[51]  M. S. Varziri,et al.  Parameter and State Estimation in Nonlinear Stochastic Continuous-Time Dynamic Models With Unknown Disturbance Intensity , 2008 .

[52]  S. Ross,et al.  A theory of the term structure of interest rates'', Econometrica 53, 385-407 , 1985 .

[53]  S. Nash,et al.  Linear and Nonlinear Programming , 1987 .

[54]  Oldrich A. Vasicek An equilibrium characterization of the term structure , 1977 .

[55]  Jan Nygaard Nielsen,et al.  Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations: An overview , 2000 .

[56]  Clifford H. Thurber,et al.  Parameter estimation and inverse problems , 2005 .

[57]  J. Varah A Spline Least Squares Method for Numerical Parameter Estimation in Differential Equations , 1982 .