A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF LOCAL AREA IMPACTS RESULTING FROM NATIONAL ENERGY SHORTAGES

A method to aid in estimating the local area impacts of national energy shortages is presented. Using data from the 1977 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study and forecasting models developed in NCHRP Report 229, the study examines the potential travel impacts of fuel shortages in six different-sized urban areas under seven different energy future scenarios. These scenarios are defined by fuel supply shortfall, by government actions taken to offset this shortfall, and by whether long-range conservation actions are taken by the public. The study found that the most effective actions for reducing fuel use were long-range conservation actions such as moving closer to work or buying a more fuel-efficient automobile. In the absence of a fuel shortage, the 1990 scenario with long-range actions showed a decline in fuel use from 1980 of 13 to 15 percent, while the 1990 scenario without these actions showed a decline in fuel use of only 2 to 4 percent. The most effective type of transportation system management (TSM) actions for reducing fuel use are those that discourage solo driving. In addition, there is a significant difference in the amount of fuel saved by work versus nonwork TSM actions in future scenarios that do not contain long-range adjustments. However, in future scenarios with long-range adjustments, the amount of fuel saved by work versus nonwork travel becomes more of an even split. Smaller-sized urban areas will be affected the most by future energy shortages because of lack of available transit and fewer opportunities for carpooling. The impact of long-range actions on fuel use is greater in these areas because of a greater proportion of automobile travel. However, this does not fully compensate for the reduced availability of alternatives to automobile use in these areas.