Trends in Japanese households' critical-metals material footprints

This study adopts the concept of material footprint (MF), an indicator for consumption-based material extraction via international trade, and identifies the relationship between the MFs of critical metals for low-carbon technologies – neodymium, cobalt, and platinum – and Japanese household consumption through a multiregional input–output approach using the global link input–output model. We focus solely on the impact of changes in consumption patterns caused by demographic change on the structures of the MFs from 2005 to 2035. As a result, the total MFs of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in 2035 are estimated to be 11%, 6.6% and 4.7% lower than in 2005, respectively. In terms of commodity sectors, the MFs of the three metals induced by “passenger motor cars” are estimated to decrease most between 2005 and 2035. Finally, we carried out an assessment of the extent to which the products dealt with under current Japanese recycling laws cover the MFs calculated for 2035. This indicates that continued enforcement of the recycling laws can play an important role in alerting consumers to the MFs of critical metals, particularly neodymium. For improving the accuracy of the above estimates, further studies need to incorporate other future trends like technologies and trade.

[1]  S. Davis,et al.  Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2]  Robert J. Klee,et al.  Multilevel cycle of anthropogenic copper. , 2004, Environmental science & technology.

[3]  T. Wiedmann.  A review of recent multi-region input–output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting , 2009 .

[4]  Jesper Munksgaard,et al.  Impact of household consumption on CO2 emissions , 2000 .

[5]  E. M. Harper,et al.  Tracking the metal of the goblins: cobalt's cycle of use. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[6]  Eunnyeong Heo,et al.  The direct and indirect household energy requirements in the Republic of Korea from 1980 to 2000—An input–output analysis , 2007 .

[7]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Mapping the structure of the world economy. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[8]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  Comparing the use of GTAP-MRIO and WIOD for carbon footprint analysis , 2014 .

[9]  G. Peters.  From production-based to consumption-based national emission inventories , 2008 .

[10]  A. Hoekstra,et al.  Humanity’s unsustainable environmental footprint , 2014, Science.

[11]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  IMPROVING THE COMPLETENESS OF PRODUCT CARBON FOOTPRINTS USING A GLOBAL LINK INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL: THE CASE OF JAPAN , 2009 .

[12]  T. Graedel,et al.  Dynamic analysis of aluminum stocks and flows in the United States: 1900–2009 , 2012 .

[13]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  CO2 emission clusters within global supply chain networks: Implications for climate change mitigation , 2015 .

[14]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  CO2 Multipliers in Multi-region Input-Output Models , 2004 .

[15]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Post-Kyoto greenhouse gas inventories: production versus consumption , 2008 .

[16]  Benjamin C. McLellan,et al.  Analysis of Japan's post-Fukushima energy strategy , 2013 .

[17]  Keisuke Nansai,et al.  Production-based emissions, consumption-based emissions and consumption-based health impacts of PM2.5 carbonaceous aerosols in Asia , 2014 .

[18]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Carbon footprint of nations: a global, trade-linked analysis. , 2009, Environmental science & technology.

[19]  J. Randers,et al.  Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[20]  M. Dalton,et al.  Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[21]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  Global Flows of Critical Metals Necessary for Low-Carbon Technologies: The Case of Neodymium, Cobalt, and Platinum , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[22]  M. Lenzen,et al.  Energy requirements of consumption: Urban form, climatic and socio-economic factors, rebounds and their policy implications , 2013 .

[23]  T. Graedel,et al.  Global in-use stocks of the rare Earth elements: a first estimate. , 2011, Environmental science & technology.

[24]  R. Duarte,et al.  HOUSEHOLDS’ BEHAVIOUR AND ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSIONS IN A REGIONAL ECONOMY , 2014 .

[25]  H. S. Matthews,et al.  Quantifying the global and distributional aspects of American household carbon footprint , 2008 .

[26]  Tim Jackson,et al.  The carbon footprint of UK households 1990–2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input–output model , 2009 .

[27]  Glen P. Peters,et al.  COMPARING THE GTAP-MRIO AND WIOD DATABASES FOR CARBON FOOTPRINT ANALYSIS , 2014 .

[28]  E. Hertwich.  Life cycle approaches to sustainable consumption: a critical review. , 2005, Environmental science & technology.

[29]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  Characterization of economic requirements for a "carbon-debt-free country". , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[30]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  Changes in the carbon footprint of Japanese households in an aging society. , 2014, Environmental science & technology.

[31]  Tobias Kronenberg,et al.  The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany , 2009 .

[32]  T. Graedel,et al.  Global anthropogenic tellurium cycles for 1940–2010 , 2013 .

[33]  Jesper Munksgaard,et al.  CO2 accounts for open economies: producer or consumer responsibility? , 2001 .

[34]  Edgar G. Hertwich,et al.  HARMONISING NATIONAL INPUT—OUTPUT TABLES FOR CONSUMPTION-BASED ACCOUNTING — EXPERIENCES FROM EXIOPOL , 2014 .

[35]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations , 2012, Nature.

[36]  Tim Jackson,et al.  Time, gender and carbon: A study of the carbon implications of British adults' use of time , 2012 .

[37]  S. Suh,et al.  The material footprint of nations , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[38]  Tao Wang,et al.  Exploring the engine of anthropogenic iron cycles , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  H. Moll,et al.  Relating the environmental impact of consumption to household expenditures: An input–output analysis , 2009 .

[40]  Arnold Tukker,et al.  EXIOPOL – DEVELOPMENT AND ILLUSTRATIVE ANALYSES OF A DETAILED GLOBAL MR EE SUT/IOT , 2013 .

[41]  E. Hertwich,et al.  Affluence drives the global displacement of land use , 2013 .

[42]  Kjartan Steen-Olsen,et al.  Carbon, land, and water footprint accounts for the European Union: consumption, production, and displacements through international trade. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[43]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  Energy requirements of Sydney households , 2004 .

[44]  K. Hubacek,et al.  Environmental implications of urbanization and lifestyle change in China: Ecological and Water Footprints , 2009 .

[45]  T. Graedel,et al.  Dynamic analysis of the global metals flows and stocks in electricity generation technologies , 2013 .

[46]  S. Pachauri,et al.  Direct and indirect energy requirements of households in India , 2002 .

[47]  Richard Wood,et al.  Estimating raw material equivalents on a macro-level: comparison of multi-regional input-output analysis and hybrid LCI-IO. , 2013, Environmental science & technology.

[48]  Bart Los,et al.  THE CONSTRUCTION OF WORLD INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES IN THE WIOD PROJECT , 2013 .

[49]  A. Elshkaki,et al.  An analysis of future platinum resources, emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks , 2013 .

[50]  Manfred Lenzen,et al.  A CARBON FOOTPRINT TIME SERIES OF THE UK – RESULTS FROM A MULTI-REGION INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL , 2010 .

[51]  S. Giljum,et al.  Materials embodied in international trade – Global material extraction and consumption between 1995 and 2005 , 2012 .

[52]  Jiří Jaromír Klemeš,et al.  A Review of Footprint analysis tools for monitoring impacts on sustainability , 2012 .

[53]  Thomas Wiedmann,et al.  Integrating ecological, carbon and water footprint into a "footprint family" of indicators: Definition and role in tracking human pressure on the planet , 2012 .

[54]  Daniel B Müller,et al.  Anthropogenic nickel cycle: insights into use, trade, and recycling. , 2008, Environmental science & technology.

[55]  Stephan Pfister,et al.  COMPARISON OF BOTTOM-UP AND TOP-DOWN APPROACHES TO CALCULATING THE WATER FOOTPRINTS OF NATIONS , 2011 .

[56]  C. Weber,et al.  Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008 , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[57]  Daniel Moran,et al.  CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE EORA, WIOD, EXIOBASE, AND OPENEU'S CONSUMPTION-BASED CARBON ACCOUNTS , 2014 .

[58]  A. Hoekstra,et al.  The water footprint of humanity , 2011, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[59]  Shigemi Kagawa,et al.  Global mining risk footprint of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum in Japan. , 2015, Environmental science & technology.