A novel method for non-probabilistic convex modelling based on data from practical engineering

Abstract In this paper, a novel method for non-probabilistic convex modelling with the bounds to precisely encircle all the data of uncertain parameters extracted from practical engineering is developed. The method is based on the traditional statistical method and the correlation analysis technique. Mean values and correlation coefficients of uncertain parameters are first calculated by utilizing the information of all the given data. Then, a simple yet effective optimization procedure is first introduced in the mathematical modelling process for uncertain parameters to obtain their precise bounds. This procedure works by optimizing the area of the convex model, at the same time, covering all the given data. Thus, the effective mathematical expression of the convex models are finally formulated. To test the prediction capability and generalization ability of the proposed convex modelling method, evaluation criteria, i.e. volume ratio, standard volume ratio, and prediction accuracy are established. The performance of the proposed method is systematically studied and compared with other existing competitive methods through test standards. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the present method.

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