A new statistical model for extreme water levels along the Dutch coast

The Netherlands is a low-lying country which has to protect itself against flooding from the sea and its rivers. Reliable flood defenses are essential for the safety of the country. The sea dikes are designed to withstand floods with a height of once every 10,000 years. This height is used to be calculated using statistics on sea levels measured along the Dutch coast since 1880. In this paper new calculations will be presented taking account of known sea floods in the period before 1880. A Bayesian framework has been developed for this.