The antilock braking system anomaly: a drinking driver problem?

Antilock braking systems (ABS) have held promise for reducing the incidence of accidents because they reduce stopping times on slippery surfaces and allow drivers to maintain steering control during emergency braking. Farmer et al. (Accident Anal. Prevent. 29 (1997) 745) provide evidence that antilock brakes are beneficial to nonoccupants: a set of 1992 model General Motors vehicles equipped with antilock brakes were involved in significantly fewer fatal crashes in which occupants of other vehicles, pedestrians, or bicyclists were killed. But, perversely, the risk of death for occupants of vehicles equipped with antilock brakes increased significantly after adoption. Farmer (Accident Anal. Prevent. 33 (2001) 361) updates the analysis for 1996- 1998 and finds a significant attenuation in the ABS anomaly. Researchers have put forward two hypotheses to explain this antilock brake anomaly: risk compensation and improper operation of antilock brake-equipped vehicles. We provide strong evidence for the improper operation hypothesis by showing that the antilock brake anomaly is confined largely to drinking drivers. Further, we show that the attenuation phenomenon occurs consistently after the first three to four years of vehicle service.

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