The Tornado Situation of 17 March 1951

The authors' method of forecasting severe storms is applied to the tornado development in Arkansas, 17 March 1951. The forecast of that storm is quoted and the considerations on which it was based are described. Since the method is entirely empirical, no attempt is made to ex-plain why it works, but rather to describe how the practical forecaster's mind works as he uses commonly accessible data in an uncommon way. The forecast described was transmitted over Air Force teletype circuits eight hours before the first known tornado struck and four hours before the first known damaging hail fell. Verification shows one tornado reported within the forecast area and another 50 miles north, both well within the forecast time period, which was six hours in length. Related hailstorms are also shown.