Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty in Airport Surface Operations

[Abstract] As new surface-related air traffic management decision support tools (DSTs) are developed, it is imperative to understand the interactions between various surface operations and the inherent uncertainty surrounding them. These uncertainties, specifically their magnitude and potential impact on airport system behavior, are of critical interest to both National Airspace System (NAS) researchers and operational personnel. Several surface uncertainties of interest, including ramp spot wait time uncertainty, taxi route uncertainty, taxiway transit speed uncertainty, and the Airport Reconfiguration Delay and Resequencing Penalty (ARDRP) incurred by aircraft switching departure queues during configuration change, have been identified and quantified in the following paper. By understanding surface operation uncertainties on a quantitative level, the performance of new procedural and technological improvements can be better estimated, potential surface improvements can be understood and prioritized, and the goal of achieving efficient surface operations is ultimately advanced.

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