Stochastic model-based assessment of power systems subject to extreme wind power fluctuation

Extreme outliers of wind power fluctuation are a source of severe damage to power systems. In our previous work, we proposed a modelling framework, verified its usefulness via real data, and developed a model-based evaluation method of the impact of such extreme outliers. However, it has been a drawback that the obtained estimates of frequency fluctuation of power systems are sometimes excessively conservative for their practical use. To overcome this weakness, theory and methods for tightening the fluctuation estimates are investigated in this paper. This is done by applying a robust performance analysis method of a Lur'e system to the error analysis of stochastic linearization. The usefulness of our proposed method is shown through a load frequency control model.

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