Performance Evaluation for Automated Threat Detection

We have developed a performance evaluation laboratory (PE Lab) to assess automated technologies that fuse fragmentary, partial information about individuals’ activities to detect modeled terrorist threat individuals, groups, and events whose evidence traces are embedded in a background dominated by evidence from similarly modeled non-threat phenomena. We have developed the PE Lab’s main components–a test dataset generator and a hypothesis scorer–to address two key challenges of counter-terrorism threat detection performance evaluation: 2 Acquiring adequate test data to support systematic experimentation; and 2 Scoring structured hypotheses that reflect modeled threat objects’ attribute values and inter-relationships.

[1]  Lawrence B. Holder,et al.  Iterative Structure Discovery in Graph-Based Data , 2005, Int. J. Artif. Intell. Tools.

[2]  Robert C. Schrag,et al.  Scoring Hypotheses from Threat Detection Technologies: Analogies to Machine Learning Evaluation , 2007 .

[3]  P. Cohen,et al.  Measuring Confidence Intervals in Link Discovery: A Bootstrap Approach , 2004 .

[4]  Brian Gallagher,et al.  Matching Structure and Semantics: A Survey on Graph-Based Pattern Matching , 2006, AAAI Fall Symposium: Capturing and Using Patterns for Evidence Detection.

[5]  Haym Hirsh,et al.  Learning to Predict Rare Events in Event Sequences , 1998, KDD.

[6]  James Llinas,et al.  Revisiting the JDL Data Fusion Model II , 2004 .

[7]  Jacqueline Chame,et al.  Processing-in-memory technology for knowledge discovery algorithms , 2006, DaMoN '06.

[8]  Nicholas J. Pioch,et al.  Multi-Hypothesis Abductive Reasoning for Link Discovery , 2004 .

[9]  Lawrence B. Holder,et al.  Graph-based Relational Learning with Application to Security , 2004, Fundam. Informaticae.

[10]  André Valente,et al.  The KOJAK Group Finder: Connecting the Dots via Integrated Knowledge-Based and Statistical Reasoning , 2004, AAAI.

[11]  Lawrence B. Holder,et al.  Structure Discovery in Sequentially-connected Data Streams , 2006, Int. J. Artif. Intell. Tools.

[12]  Christopher M. Boner Automated Detection of Terrorist Activities through Link Discovery within Massive Datasets , 2005, AAAI Spring Symposium: AI Technologies for Homeland Security.

[13]  P. King,et al.  Simulating terrorist threat with the hats simulator , 2005 .

[14]  A. Volgenant,et al.  A shortest augmenting path algorithm for dense and sparse linear assignment problems , 1987, Computing.

[15]  Clayton T. Morrison,et al.  The Hats Information Fusion Challenge Problem , 2006, 2006 9th International Conference on Information Fusion.

[16]  S. Matwin,et al.  Data Mining For Prediction of Aircraft Component Replacement , 1999 .

[17]  Robert C. Schrag,et al.  Scoring Alerts from Threat Detection Technologies , 2006, AAAI Fall Symposium: Capturing and Using Patterns for Evidence Detection.

[18]  I. Harrison,et al.  Helping intelligence analysts detect threats in overflowing, changing and incomplete information , 2004, Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Homeland Security and Personal Safety, 2004. CIHSPS 2004..

[19]  Foster J. Provost,et al.  A Brief Survey of Machine Learning Methods for Classification in Networked Data and an Application to Suspicion Scoring , 2006, SNA@ICML.

[20]  Martin O. Hofmann,et al.  Complexity and Performance Assessment for Data Fusion Systems , 1998 .

[21]  Foster Provost,et al.  Suspicion scoring based on guilt-by-association, colle ctive inference, and focused data access 1 , 2005 .

[22]  Hans Chalupsky,et al.  Scalable Group Detection via a Mutual Information Model , 2004 .

[23]  Dimitri P. Bertsekas,et al.  A forward/reverse auction algorithm for asymmetric assignment problems , 1992, Comput. Optim. Appl..

[24]  Lawrence B. Holder,et al.  Learning Concepts from Intelligence Data Embedded in a Supervised Graph , 2005 .

[25]  Kathryn B. Laskey,et al.  Measuring Performance for Situation Assessment , 2001 .

[26]  Alan N. Steinberg Open Networks: Generalized Multi-Sensor Characterization , 2006, 2006 9th International Conference on Information Fusion.

[27]  John J. Salerno,et al.  Realizing situation awareness within a cyber environment , 2006, SPIE Defense + Commercial Sensing.

[28]  Jesse Davis,et al.  Establishing Identity Equivalence in Multi-Relational Domains , 2005 .

[29]  Jesse Davis,et al.  Using Bayesian Classifiers to Combine Rules , 2004 .

[30]  M. Wolverton,et al.  The Role of Higher-Order Constructs in the Inexact Matching of Semantic Graphs , 2005 .