Evaluation of re-entry conditions from orbits at the Lagrangian points

Even if no protected regions are currently defined around the Sun-Earth libration points, missions in these orbits still have to be compliant with Space Debris Mitigation guidelines, for example for what concerns the casualty risk in case of re-entry. Past studies on the re-entries from libration orbits were carried out by performing a limited sensitivity analysis of the casualty area to the variation of re-entry parameters. In the current work, a Monte Carlo approach is used to study the evolution of trajectories in case of a fragmentation or a failure of a spacecraft at the libration points. A large number of possible re-entry trajectories are generated and the corresponding re-entry conditions and casualty area are obtained by simulating the last phase of the evolution with ESA DRAMA software. The goal is to find a practical procedure for casualty risk requirements verification for current and future missions.