Spatiotemporal variations of seismicity before major earthquakes in the Japanese area and their relation with the epicentral locations

Significance It was recently found that a few months before major earthquakes, the seismicity in the entire Japanese region exhibits a characteristic change. This change, however, can be identified when seismic data are analyzed in a new time domain termed “natural time.” By dividing the Japanese region into small areas, we find that some small areas show the characteristic change almost simultaneously with the large area and such small areas are clustered within a few hundred kilometers from the actual epicenter of the related major earthquake. This phenomenon may serve for forecasting the epicenter of a future major earthquake. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog, we investigate the seismicity variations before major earthquakes in the Japanese region. We apply natural time, the new time frame, for calculating the fluctuations, termed β, of a certain parameter of seismicity, termed κ1. In an earlier study, we found that β calculated for the entire Japanese region showed a minimum a few months before the shallow major earthquakes (magnitude larger than 7.6) that occurred in the region during the period from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011. In this study, by dividing the Japanese region into small areas, we carry out the β calculation on them. It was found that some small areas show β minimum almost simultaneously with the large area and such small areas clustered within a few hundred kilometers from the actual epicenter of the related main shocks. These results suggest that the present approach may help estimation of the epicentral location of forthcoming major earthquakes.