Transfer Volume Forecasting Method and Application for Passenger Terminal

As a key to transportation hub planning,transfer volume forecasting is the premise of the hub operation and management.After analyzing the advantageous and disadvantageous of existing widely used forecasting methods,aggregate and disaggregate methods,this paper presents a few new transfer demand prediction methods including split timedepend method,short time-depend method and similar factors analogy method among two or more transport terminals.Then,time-depend method and factor-depend method are applied in the transfer prediction of Liaoyang Transport Terminal.Finally,the application fields of those methods are analyzed from the aspects of terminal construction,complexity of the method constriction,and the basic consult materials need.The research can provide a new view for transfer volume forecasting.