Predicting the Long-Term Behavior of a Micro-Solar Power System

Micro-solar power system design is challenging because it must address long-term system behavior under highly variable solar energy conditions and consider a large space of design options. Several micro-solar power systems and models have been made, validating particular points in the whole design space. We provide a general architecture of micro-solar power systems---comprising key components and interconnections among the components---and formalize each component in an analytical or empirical model of its behavior. To model the variability of solar energy, we provide three solar radiation models, depending on the degree of information available: an astronomical model for ideal conditions, an obstructed astronomical model for estimating solar radiation under the presence of shadows and obstructions, and a weather-effect model for estimating solar radiation under weather variation. Our solar radiation models are validated with a concrete design, the HydroWatch node, thus achieving small deviation from the long-term measurement. They can be used in combination with other micro-solar system models to improve the utility of the load and estimate the behavior of micro-solar power systems more accurately. Thus, our solar radiation models provide more accurate estimations of solar radiation and close the loop for micro-solar power system modeling.