Diagnosing Rain Occurrences Using Passive Microwave Imagery: A Comparative Study on Probabilistic Graphical Models and “Black Box” Models

AbstractRainfall is a fundamental process in the hydrologic cycle. This study investigated the cause–effect relationship in which precipitation at lower frequencies affects the amount of emitted radiation and at higher frequencies affects the amount of backscattered terrestrial radiation. Because the advantage of a probabilistic graphical model is its graphical representation, which allows easy causality interpretation using the arc directions, two Bayesian networks (BNs) were used, namely, a naive Bayes classifier and a tree-augmented naive Bayes model. To empirically evaluate and compare BN-based models, “black box”–based models, including nearest-neighbor searches and artificial neural network (ANN)-based multilayer perceptron and logistic regression, were used as benchmarks. For the two study regions—namely, the Tanshui River basin in northern Taiwan and Chianan Plain in southern Taiwan—rain occurrences during typhoon seasons were examined using passive microwave imagery recorded using the Special Sen...

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