Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature

[1]  N. Sanders,et al.  Forecasting Practices in US Corporations: Survey Results , 1994 .

[2]  William Remus,et al.  Judgemental forecasting in times of change , 1993 .

[3]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Improving judgmental time series forecasting: A review of the guidance provided by research , 1993 .

[4]  C. Chatfield,et al.  The M2-competition: A real-time judgmentally based forecasting study , 1993 .

[5]  Michael R. Donihue Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy , 1993 .

[6]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Situational factors affecting judgments of future performance , 1993 .

[7]  H. Simon,et al.  Pattern in music , 1992 .

[8]  P. George Benson,et al.  The effects of feedback and training on the performance of probability forecasters , 1992 .

[9]  Fred Collopy,et al.  Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities , 1992 .

[10]  Leslie B. Hammer,et al.  Task information, cognitive information, or functional validity information: Which components of cognitive feedback affect performance?☆ , 1992 .

[11]  Fred Collopy,et al.  Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations , 1992 .

[12]  Adamantios Diamantopoulos,et al.  Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non‐revised forecasts , 1992 .

[13]  Barry G. Silverman,et al.  Judgment Error and Expert Critics in Forecasting Tasks , 1992 .

[14]  M. O'Connor,et al.  Exploring judgemental forecasting , 1992 .

[15]  Fred L. Collopy,et al.  Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons , 1992 .

[16]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  Accuracy of judgmental forecasts: A comparison , 1992 .

[17]  C. J. Wolfe,et al.  Judgmental adjustment of forecasts: A comparison of methods , 1992 .

[18]  Larry P. Ritzman,et al.  The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting , 1992 .

[19]  Bruce Abramson,et al.  Using belief networks to forecast oil prices , 1991 .

[20]  Analysts' utilization of historical earnings information , 1991 .

[21]  Thomas R. Willemain The effect of graphical adjustment on forecast accuracy , 1991 .

[22]  D. Bunn,et al.  Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: issues & , 1991 .

[23]  Gerald J. Lobo Alternative methods of combining security analysts' and statistical forecasts of annual corporate earnings , 1991 .

[24]  Alexander J. Wearing,et al.  Feedback and the forecasting of exponential change , 1991 .

[25]  Kenton B. Walker,et al.  Management Forecasts And Statistical Prediction Model Forecasts In Corporate Budgeting , 1991 .

[26]  M. Moriarty Boundary Value Models for the Combination of Forecasts , 1990 .

[27]  Stephen K. McNees The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy , 1990 .

[28]  Robert C. Blattberg,et al.  Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager , 1990 .

[29]  Paul B. Andreassen,et al.  Judgmental extrapolation and the salience of change , 1990 .

[30]  Brian P. Mathews,et al.  Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection , 1990 .

[31]  C. J. Wolfe,et al.  Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts , 1990 .

[32]  D. Turner The role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasting , 1990 .

[33]  R. H. Edmundson Decomposition; a strategy for judgemental forecasting , 1990 .

[34]  Donald G. MacGregor,et al.  Problem Structuring Aids for Quantitative Estimation , 1990 .

[35]  B Kleinmuntz,et al.  Why we still use our heads instead of formulas: toward an integrative approach. , 1990, Psychological bulletin.

[36]  Jae Kyu Lee,et al.  UNIK-FCST: knowledge-assisted adjustment of statistical forecasts , 1990 .

[37]  Nada R. Sanders,et al.  Improving short-term forecasts , 1990 .

[38]  Pami Dua,et al.  Forecaster ideology, forecasting technique, and the accuracy of economic forecasts , 1990 .

[39]  Derek W. Bunn,et al.  Forecasting with more than one model , 1989 .

[40]  Alan E. Pankratz Time series forecasts and extra‐model information , 1989 .

[41]  A. Diamantopoulos,et al.  Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal eetension , 1989 .

[42]  R. Dawes,et al.  Heuristics and Biases: Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment , 2002 .

[43]  Adamantios Diamantopoulos,et al.  Factors affecting the nature and effectiveness of subjective revision in sales forecasting: An empirical study , 1989 .

[44]  Thomas R. Willemain,et al.  Graphical adjustment of statistical forecasts , 1989 .

[45]  Jeff Harrison,et al.  Subjective intervention in formal models , 1989 .

[46]  Gerardine DeSanctis,et al.  Graphical presentation of accounting data for financial forecasting: An experimental investigation , 1989 .

[47]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  Models of human behaviour and confidence in judgement: A review , 1989 .

[48]  R. Clemen Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography , 1989 .

[49]  R. Clemen,et al.  Econometric GNP forecasts: Incremental information relative to naive extrapolation , 1989 .

[50]  Francis X. Diebold,et al.  Forecast combination and encompassing: Reconciling two divergent literatures , 1989 .

[51]  Paul Slovic,et al.  Structuring Knowledge Retrieval: An Analysis of Decomposed Quantitative Judgments , 1988 .

[52]  Steven P. Schnaars,et al.  The Accuracy of Business Week's Industry Outlook Survey , 1988 .

[53]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  The use of non‐time series information in sales forecasting: A case study , 1988 .

[54]  L. Brown,et al.  Comparing Judgmental to Extrapolative Forecasts: It's Time to Ask Why and When , 1988 .

[55]  Spyros Makridakis,et al.  Metaforecasting. Ways of improving forecasting accuracy and usefulness , 1988 .

[56]  Robert Hugh Edmundson A computer-based decision aid for forecasting monthly time series , 1988 .

[57]  Carl R. Beidleman,et al.  Composite Earnings Forecasting Efficiency , 1987 .

[58]  William Remus,et al.  A Study of Graphical and Tabular Displays and Their Interaction with Environmental Complexity , 1987 .

[59]  Robert S. Harris,et al.  Consensus forests of corporate earnings: analysts' forecasts and time series methods , 1987 .

[60]  L. Brown,et al.  Security Analyst Superiority Relative to Univariate Time-Series Models in Forecasting Quarterly Earnings , 1987 .

[61]  R. Mcnown,et al.  A re-evaluation of the combination and adjustment of forecasts , 1987 .

[62]  John B. Guerard,et al.  Linear constraints, robust‐weighting and efficient composite modeling , 1987 .

[63]  Paul Newbold,et al.  Combining forecasts to improve earnings per share prediction: An examination of electric utilities , 1987 .

[64]  Douglas J. Dalrymple Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey , 1987 .

[65]  R. H. Edmundson,et al.  The accuracy of combining judgemental and statistical forecasts , 1986 .

[66]  Wilpen L. Gorr Use of special event data in government information systems , 1986 .

[67]  Wilpen Gorr,et al.  Special Event Data in Shared Databases , 1986, MIS Q..

[68]  Lee Roy Beach,et al.  Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting , 1986 .

[69]  Pam Angus-Leppan,et al.  The Forecasting Accuracy of Trainee Accountants Using Judgemental and Statistical Techniques , 1986 .

[70]  Heejoon Kang Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts , 1986 .

[71]  A. C. Harvey,et al.  The Effects of Seat Belt Legislation on British Road Casualties: A Case Study in Structural Time Series Modelling , 1986 .

[72]  R. Wood Task complexity: Definition of the construct , 1986 .

[73]  Adamantios Diamantopoulos,et al.  Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation , 1986 .

[74]  Gerardine DeSanctis,et al.  Understanding the effectiveness of computer graphics for decision support: a cumulative experimental approach , 1986, CACM.

[75]  Izak Benbasat,et al.  An Experimental Evaluation of Graphical and Color-Enhanced Information Presentation , 1985 .

[76]  E. S. Gardner,et al.  Forecasting Trends in Time Series , 1985 .

[77]  Wilpen L. Gorr,et al.  ACCURACY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING OF TIME SERIES , 1985 .

[78]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources , 1985, Oper. Res..

[79]  George Foster,et al.  Security analyst multi-year earnings forecasts and the capital market , 1985 .

[80]  Marcus O'Connor,et al.  An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series , 1985 .

[81]  A. H. Murphy,et al.  A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states , 1984 .

[82]  Gerardine DeSanctis,et al.  COMPUTER GRAPHICS AS DECISION AIDS: DIRECTIONS FOR RESEARCH* , 1984 .

[83]  G V Jones Perception of inflation: Polynomial not exponential , 1984, Perception & psychophysics.

[84]  Arthur J. Adams,et al.  Management Judgment Forecasts, Composite Forecasting Models, and Conditional Efficiency , 1984 .

[85]  William Remus,et al.  An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making , 1984 .

[86]  G. Assmus New product forecasting , 1984 .

[87]  Thomas Cook,et al.  An Urban Allocation Model Combining Time Series and Analytic Hierarchical Methods , 1984 .

[88]  J. Sparkes,et al.  Awareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry , 1984 .

[89]  John T. Mentzer,et al.  Familiarity, application, and performance of sales forecasting techniques , 1984 .

[90]  J. Armstrong,et al.  Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings , 1983 .

[91]  Howard E. Aldrich,et al.  Note—Mintzberg was Right!: A Replication and Extension of The Nature of Managerial Work , 1983 .

[92]  Robert Carbone,et al.  Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment , 1983 .

[93]  Michael Lawrence An exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models , 1983 .

[94]  G. W. Fischer,et al.  Scoring-rule feedback and the overconfidence syndrome in subjective probability forecasting , 1982 .

[95]  R. Lewandowski Practitioners' forum. Sales forecasting by forsys , 1982 .

[96]  Robert L. Winkler,et al.  The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition , 1982 .

[97]  Edwin T. Cornelius,et al.  A comparison of holistic and decomposed judgment strategies in a performance rating simulation , 1982 .

[98]  I. Eggleton Intuitive Time-Series Extrapolation , 1982 .

[99]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting , 1982 .

[100]  David A. Bessler,et al.  Forecasting livestock prices with individual and composite methods , 1981 .

[101]  F. Mosteller,et al.  Eye-Fitting of Straight Lines. , 1981 .

[102]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer , 1981 .

[103]  Steven C. Wheelwright,et al.  Forecasting methods and applications. , 1979 .

[104]  J. Shanteau,et al.  Livestock judges: How much information can an expert use? , 1978 .

[105]  Han Timmers,et al.  Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth , 1977 .

[106]  P. H. Lindsay Human Information Processing , 1977 .

[107]  W. A. Wagenaar,et al.  Misperception of exponential growth , 1975 .

[108]  Henry Mintzberg The Manager's Job: Folklore and Fact. , 1975 .

[109]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[110]  C. Granger,et al.  Experience with Forecasting Univariate Time Series and the Combination of Forecasts , 1974 .

[111]  C. Granger,et al.  Some comments on the evaluation of economic forecasts , 1973 .

[112]  Michael D. Geurts,et al.  A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting the Effects of Atypical Situations , 1972 .

[113]  Michael D. Geurts,et al.  Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control , 1977 .

[114]  John E. Laestadius Tolerance for errors in intuitive mean estimations , 1970 .

[115]  R. Cattell,et al.  Formal representation of human judgment , 1968 .

[116]  L. Beach,et al.  Man as an Intuitive Statistician , 2022 .

[117]  Paul E. Meehl,et al.  When shall we use our heads instead of the formula , 1957 .

[118]  William M. Smith,et al.  A Study of Thinking , 1956 .

[119]  G. A. Miller THE PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW THE MAGICAL NUMBER SEVEN, PLUS OR MINUS TWO: SOME LIMITS ON OUR CAPACITY FOR PROCESSING INFORMATION 1 , 1956 .