Analysis of probabilistic load flow using point estimation method to evaluate the quantiles of electrical networks state variables

The objective of the paper is to provide a clear and comprehensive analysis of probabilistic load flow using Point Estimation Method, and its accuracy in the evaluation of the quantiles of the state variables of real electrical distribution networks. Three Points Estimation Method (TPEM) has been implemented to evaluate the first four moments of output variables (voltages, currents and active power flows), and several methods to reconstruct the probability density function from moments and calculate the quantiles have been compared, including Generalized Lambda Distribution and Gram-Charlier Development. Monte-Carlo PLF has been taken as reference to evaluate the accuracy of aforementioned TPEM results and the scope of application of the method in a real electrical distribution system.

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