Relation between soluble ST2, GDF-15 and hsTnI and Incident Atrial Fibrillation

Background— We investigated whether circulating concentrations of soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) are associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), and whether these biomarkers, improve current risk prediction models including AF risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods— We studied the relation between soluble ST2, GDF-15, and hsTnI and development of AF in Framingham Heart Study participants without prevalent AF. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to examine the relation of incident AF during a 10-year follow-up period with each biomarker. We adjusted for standard AF clinical risk factors, BNP, and CRP. Results— The mean age of the 3,217 participants was 59±10 years and 54% were women. During 10 years of follow-up, 242 participants developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted models, GDF-15 and hsTnI were associated with risk of incident AF; however, after including the AF risk factors and BNP and CRP, only hsTnI was significantly associated with AF (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation of log e hsTnI, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.00-1.26; P =0.045). The C-statistic of the base model including AF risk factors, BNP and CRP was 0.803 (95% CI 0.777–0.830), and did not improve by adding individual or all 3 biomarkers. None of the discrimination and reclassification statistics was significant compared to the base model. Conclusion— In a community-based cohort, circulating hsTnI concentrations were associated with incident AF. None of the novel biomarkers evaluated improved AF risk discrimination or reclassification beyond standard clinical AF risk factors and biomarkers.

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