Ambiguity aversion in multi-armed bandit problems

In multi-armed bandit problems, information acquired from experimentation is valuable because it tells the agent whether to select a particular option again in the future. This article tests whether people undervalue this information because they are ambiguity averse, or have a distaste for uncertainty about the average quality of each alternative. It is shown that ambiguity averse agents have lower than optimal Gittins indexes, appearing to undervalue information from experimentation, but are willing to pay more than ambiguity neutral agents to learn the true mean of the payoff distribution, appearing to overvalue objectively given information. This prediction is tested with a laboratory experiment that elicits a Gittins index and a willingness to pay on six two-armed bandits. Consistent with the predictions of ambiguity aversion, the Gittins indexes are significantly lower than optimal and willingnesses to pay are significantly higher than optimal.

[1]  D. Ellsberg Decision, probability, and utility: Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms , 1961 .

[2]  F. J. Anscombe,et al.  A Definition of Subjective Probability , 1963 .

[3]  J. Gani,et al.  Progress in statistics , 1975 .

[4]  K. Borch Probabilities of probabilities , 1975 .

[5]  J. Frank Yates,et al.  Characterization of Ambiguity in Decision Making. , 1976 .

[6]  A. Roth,et al.  Game-Theoretic Models and the Role of Information in Bargaining , 1979 .

[7]  David A. Wise,et al.  Price Differences in almost Competitive Markets , 1979 .

[8]  Yale M. Braunstein,et al.  ECONOMIC SEARCH: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY , 1981 .

[9]  Ronald G. Ehrenberg,et al.  Research in Labor Economics. , 1981 .

[10]  Yale M. Braunstein,et al.  LABOR MARKET SEARCH: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY , 1982 .

[11]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference. , 1985 .

[12]  Uzi Segal,et al.  The Ellsberg Paradox and Risk Aversion: An Anticipated Utility Approach , 1987 .

[13]  Rakesh K. Sarin,et al.  Modeling Ambiguity in Decisions Under Uncertainty , 1988 .

[14]  Jonathan Baron,et al.  Ambiguity and rationality , 1988 .

[15]  D. Schmeidler Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity , 1989 .

[16]  James C. Cox,et al.  Laboratory experiments with a finite-horizon job-search model , 1989 .

[17]  I. Gilboa,et al.  Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior , 1989 .

[18]  James C. Cox,et al.  Unemployment Insurance and Job Search , 1990 .

[19]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights , 1990 .

[20]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Recent developments in modeling preferences: Uncertainty and ambiguity , 1992 .

[21]  Ronald L. Oaxaca,et al.  Direct Tests of the Reservation Wage Property , 1992 .

[22]  J. Kagel,et al.  Handbook of Experimental Economics , 1997 .

[23]  R. Meyer,et al.  Sequential Choice Under Ambiguity: Intuitive Solutions to the Armed-Bandit Problem , 1995 .

[24]  Colin Camerer Individual Decision Making , 2020, The Handbook of Experimental Economics.

[25]  Mark A. Olson,et al.  An experimental analysis of the bandit problem , 1997 .

[26]  James C. Cox,et al.  Good News and Bad News: Search from Unknown Wage Offer Distributions , 2000 .

[27]  Yoram Halevy Ellsberg Revisited: An Experimental Study , 2005 .

[28]  Noah Gans,et al.  Simple Models of Discrete Choice and Their Performance in Bandit Experiments , 2007, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag..

[29]  Paul R. Schrater,et al.  Bayesian modeling of human sequential decision-making on the multi-armed bandit problem , 2008 .

[30]  K. McRae,et al.  Proceedings of the 30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. , 2008 .

[31]  Massimo Marinacci,et al.  Recursive smooth ambiguity preferences , 2009, J. Econ. Theory.

[32]  M. Lee,et al.  A Bayesian analysis of human decision-making on bandit problems , 2009 .

[33]  Christian P. Traeger Subjective Risk, Confidence, and Ambiguity , 2011 .

[34]  Douglas A. Norton,et al.  Experts with a conflict of interest: a source of ambiguity? , 2012 .