Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate Change Risks and Effects -- PRUDENCE

Projections of future climate change already exist, but are deficient both in terms of the characterisation of their uncertainties and in terms of their regional detail. To date, the assessment of potential impacts of climate change has generally relied on projections from simple climate models or coarse resolution Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models. Coarse resolution precludes the simulation of realistic extreme events and the detailed spatial structure of variables like temperature and precipitation over heterogeneous surfaces e.g. the Alps, the Mediterranean or Scandinavia. Simple models include, at best, a limited physical representation of the climate system. PRUDENCE is a new European-scale investigation funded by the European Commission with the following objectives: 1. to address and reduce the above-mentioned deficiencies in projections; 2. to quantify our confidence and the uncertainties in predictions of future climate and its impacts, using an array of climate models and impact models and expert judgement on their performance; 3. to interpret these results in relation to European policies for adapting to or mitigating climate change. Climate change is expected to affect the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, due to higher temperatures, an intensified hydrological cycle or more vigorous atmospheric motions. A major limitation in previous studies of extremes has been the lack of: appropriate computational resolution obscures or precludes analysis of the events; long-term climate model integrations drastically reduces their statistical significance; co-ordination between modelling groups limits the ability to compare different studies. These three issues are all thoroughly addressed in PRUDENCE, by using state-of-the-art high resolution climate models, by co-ordinating the project goals to address critical aspects of uncertainty, and by applying impact models and impact assessment methodologies to provide the link between the provision of climate information and its likely application to serve the needs of European society and economy. PRUDENCE will provide a series of high-resolution climate change scenarios for 2071-2100 for Europe, characterising the variability and level of confidence in these scenarios as a function of uncertainties in model formulation, natural/internal climate variability, and alternative scenarios of future atmospheric composition.