Estimating Need and Demand for Prehospital Care

Models estimating demand and need for emergency transportation services are developed. These models can provide reliable estimates which can be used for planning purposes, by complementing and/or substituting for historical data. The model estimating demand requires only four independent variables: population in the area, employment in the area, and two indicators of socioeconomic status which can be obtained from census data. The model can be used to estimate demand according to 4 operational categories and 11 clinical categories. The parameters of the model are calibrated with 1979 data from 82 ambulance services covering over 200 minor civil divisions in Southwestern Pennsylvania. This model was tested with data from another 55 minor civil divisions, also in Southwestern Pennsylvania, and it provided good estimates to total demand. The model to estimate need evolves from the demand model. It enables planners to estimate unmet need occurring in the region. The effect of emergency transportation service (ETS) provider characteristics on demand was also investigated. Statistical tests show that, for purposes of forecasting demand, when the sociodemographic factors are taken into account, provider characteristics are not significant.

[1]  P. Green,et al.  Analyzing multivariate data , 1978 .

[2]  D. Schilling,et al.  Facility location: a review of context-free and EMS models. , 1977, Health services research.

[3]  G N Berlin,et al.  Determining Ambulance—Hospital Locations for On-Scene and Hospital Services , 1976 .

[4]  William K. Hall,et al.  The Application of Multifunction Stochastic Service Systems in Allocating Ambulances to an Urban Area , 1972, Oper. Res..

[5]  Ilan Vertinsky,et al.  Ambulance Location: A Probabilistic Enumeration Approach , 1973 .

[6]  David E. Allen,et al.  Optimal planning of an emergency ambulance service , 1969 .

[7]  Kenneth N. Groom,et al.  Planning Emergency Ambulance Services , 1977 .

[8]  J A Fitzsimmons,et al.  Establishing the level of service for public emergency ambulance systems. , 1979, Socio-economic planning sciences.

[9]  Richard C. Larson,et al.  Urban Operations Research , 1981 .

[10]  E. S. Savas,et al.  Simulation and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of New York's Emergency Ambulance Service , 1969 .

[11]  D. H. Marks,et al.  An Analysis of Private and Public Sector Location Models , 1970 .

[12]  Jan M. Chaiken,et al.  Methods for Allocating Urban Emergency Units: A Survey , 1972 .

[13]  Daberkow Sg,et al.  Location and cost of ambulances serving a rural area. , 1977 .

[14]  Ricardo Daniel Kamenetzky.  Estimating need and demand for emergency transportation , 1981 .

[15]  James A. Fitzsimmons,et al.  A Methodology for Emergency Ambulance Deployment , 1973 .

[16]  G Gibson,et al.  Evaluative criteria for emergency ambulance systems. , 1973, Social science & medicine.

[17]  Richard C. Larson,et al.  On Insensitivities in Urban Redistricting and Facility Location , 1972, Oper. Res..

[18]  L B Lave,et al.  An analysis of the demand for emergency ambulance service in an urban area. , 1971, American journal of public health.

[19]  Richard A. Volz.  Optimum Ambulance Location in Semi-Rural Areas , 1971 .

[20]  T. O. Kvålseth,et al.  Statistical models of the demand for emergency medical services in an urban area. , 1979, American journal of public health.

[21]  William K. Hall,et al.  Management science approaches to the determination of urban ambulance requirements , 1971 .

[22]  L J Schuman,et al.  Estimating Demand for Emergency Transportation , 1977, Medical care.

[23]  Siler Kf.  Predicting demand for publicly dispatched ambulances in a metropolitan area. , 1975 .

[24]  K A Stevenson,et al.  OPERATIONAL ASPECTS OF EMERGENCY AMBULANCE SERVICES , 1971 .