Prediction Intervals for Future Performance

Abstract : Building on more than a century of research on human memory and performance, the Predictive Performance Optimizer (PPO) is a state-of-the-art cognitive tool to help decision-makers, instructors, and learners of all types to assess current performance and predict future performance by capturing the dynamics of human learning with basic cognitive science principles. The PPO is a user-friendly software tool that can track performance over the course of a learner's training history for virtually any quantitative measure of performance. It generates performance predictions at specified future points in time, and allows users to visually and graphically assess and compare the impact of potential future training regimens. The PPO accomplishes this by utilizing a mathematical model for performance prediction (shown in Equation 1.1 below) inspired by the General Performance Equation (Anderson & Schunn, 2000).