The suspect population and DNA identification

Forensic DNA analysis typically proceeds by first determining whether alleles1 found in DNA apparently left by the perpetrator of a crime at a crime scene2 (the "evidence sample") match alleles extracted from a sample of the suspected criminal's blood (the "suspect sample"). If alleles drawn from the two sources match, the next step is to provide information about the probative value of the match by estimating the probability that alleles extracted from the blood of some random individual would have matched the alleles in the evidence sample. This probability estimate is typically made by estimating the frequency with which specific alleles are found in some population and combining these frequencies according to the product rule.3 Obviously, a match