ENSO teleconnections to the Indian summer monsoon in observations and models

The teleconnections of different types of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the Indian summer monsoon are investigated in observations and models. We find that, not all regions in India are strongly affected by ENSO, so we focus on two regional teleconnections: (1) a negative rainfall signal around central north east (CNE) India and ‘hilly’ region during El Nino (and vice versa for La Nina) and (2) similar signal for parts of southern peninsular region. Using correlations, it is found that >50% of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project models capture these two regional teleconnections, with first captured by >80% of models. Furthermore, using a compositing technique that may better capture asymmetries in response to warm and cold events, the authors find that most models again agree on the sign of regional teleconnection around the CNE and hilly region, suggesting the robustness of ENSO signal in that region. The peninsular teleconnection is less well simulated in models. We find a clear connection between the Walker circulation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around central India in models.

[1]  D. E. Harrison,et al.  On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies , 2005 .

[2]  Tim N. Palmer,et al.  Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles , 2000 .

[3]  F. Jin,et al.  Two Types of El Nio Events: Cold Tongue El Nio and Warm Pool El Nio , 2009 .

[4]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  The “normality” of El Niño , 1999 .

[5]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[6]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Summer Monsoon Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian , 2011 .

[7]  T. Barnett,et al.  Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections , 1998 .

[8]  David T. Bolvin,et al.  Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1 , 2009 .

[9]  B. Kirtman,et al.  El Niño in a changing climate , 2009, Nature.

[10]  Jianhua Ju,et al.  Possible Roles of Atlantic Circulations on the Weakening Indian Monsoon Rainfall–ENSO Relationship , 2001 .

[11]  H. Hsu,et al.  Interannual mode of sea level in the South China Sea and the roles of El Niño and El Niño Modoki , 2008 .

[12]  Amy H. Butler,et al.  On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low‐top versions of the CMIP5 models , 2013 .

[13]  Daniel R. Cayan,et al.  ENSO and Hydrologic Extremes in the Western United States , 1999 .

[14]  Min Zhong,et al.  El Niño, La Niña, and the Nonlinearity of Their Teleconnections , 1997 .

[15]  Elizabeth C. Kent,et al.  Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century , 2003 .

[16]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection , 2007 .

[17]  T. N. Krishnamurti,et al.  Improved Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasts from Multimodel Superensemble. , 1999, Science.

[18]  By,et al.  Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulation , 2006 .

[19]  Jong,et al.  Two Types of El Niño Events: Cold Tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño , 2009 .

[20]  J. Janowiak,et al.  The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979-Present) , 2003 .

[21]  C. Peña-Ortiz,et al.  Extra-tropical atmospheric response to ENSO in the CMIP5 models , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[22]  A. Timmermann,et al.  Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating , 2003 .

[23]  E. Guilyardi,et al.  ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[24]  M. England,et al.  El Niño Modoki Impacts on Australian Rainfall , 2009 .

[25]  C. Ropelewski,et al.  Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation , 1987 .

[26]  Bin Wang,et al.  Ensemble Simulations of Asian–Australian Monsoon Variability by 11 AGCMs* , 2004 .

[27]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The Asian monsoon: Global perspectives , 2006 .

[28]  James J. Hack,et al.  A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model , 2008 .

[29]  Julia Slingo,et al.  The role of the basic state in the ENSO–monsoon relationship and implications for predictability , 2005 .

[30]  K. Trenberth,et al.  Evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures , 2002 .

[31]  C. Deser,et al.  A Proposed Mechanism for the Asymmetric Duration of El Niño and La Niña , 2011 .

[32]  M. Hoerling,et al.  Unraveling the Mystery of Indian Monsoon Failure During El Niño , 2006, Science.

[33]  Kenneth R. Sperber,et al.  Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project , 1996 .

[34]  South American rainfall impacts associated with inter‐El Niño variations , 2009 .

[35]  B. Goswami.  Dynamical predictability of seasonal monsoon rainfall: problems and prospects , 1994 .

[36]  A. Grimm,et al.  Influences of two types of ENSO on South American precipitation , 2013 .

[37]  M. Mcphaden,et al.  Asymmetry in zonal phase propagation of ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies , 2009 .

[38]  H. Kao,et al.  Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO , 2009 .

[39]  Sulochana Gadgil,et al.  Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs , 1998 .

[40]  Rajib Maity,et al.  Bayesian dynamic modeling for monthly Indian summer monsoon rainfall using El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) , 2006 .

[41]  V. Ramaswamy,et al.  Anthropogenic Aerosols and the Weakening of the South Asian Summer Monsoon , 2011, Science.

[42]  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes,et al.  Multi‐model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST , 2000 .

[43]  An Investigation of the Links between ENSO Flavors and Rainfall Processes in Southeastern Australia , 2009 .

[44]  W. Cai,et al.  La Niña Modoki impacts Australia autumn rainfall variability , 2009 .

[45]  Fei-Fei Jin,et al.  Nonlinearity and Asymmetry of ENSO(. , 2004 .

[46]  R. Tedeschi,et al.  Influence of ENSO on Regional Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation—Local Atmospheric Influences or Remote Influence from Pacific , 2016 .

[47]  Karl E. Taylor,et al.  An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design , 2012 .

[48]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO , 2001 .

[49]  Y. Masumoto,et al.  Pacific Ocean origin for the 2009 Indian summer monsoon failure , 2010 .

[50]  A. Grimm.  The El Nino Impact on the Summer Monsoon in Brazil: Regional Processes versus Remote Influences , 2003 .

[51]  C. Ummenhofer,et al.  The Indo-Australian monsoon and its relationship to ENSO and IOD in reanalysis data and the CMIP3/CMIP5 simulations , 2013, Climate Dynamics.

[52]  A. E. Gill.  Some simple solutions for heat‐induced tropical circulation , 1980 .

[53]  D. Stephenson,et al.  Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO , 2003 .

[54]  P. Webster,et al.  Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction , 1998 .

[55]  A. Grimm.  How do La Niña events disturb the summer monsoon system in Brazil? , 2004 .

[56]  Bin Wang,et al.  A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices , 2014, Climate Dynamics.

[57]  Toshio Yamagata,et al.  Climate change: The El Niño with a difference. , 2009, Nature.

[58]  P. Xavier,et al.  Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment , 2006, Science.

[59]  Swadhin K. Behera,et al.  Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events , 2009 .

[60]  David B. Stephenson,et al.  Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO , 2003 .

[61]  Rajagopalan,et al.  On the weakening relationship between the indian monsoon and ENSO , 1999, Science.

[62]  C. Deser,et al.  Asymmetry in the Duration of El Niño and La Niña , 2010 .

[63]  David S. Richardson,et al.  A probability and decision‐model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi‐model ensemble integrations , 2000 .

[64]  Matthew D. Collins,et al.  On identifying the role of Sun and the El Niño Southern Oscillation on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall , 2015 .

[65]  M. Latif,et al.  Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Relation to Decadal Modulations of ENSO , 2004 .

[66]  M. Collins,et al.  The influence of ENSO on South American precipitation: simulation and projection in CMIP5 models , 2017 .

[67]  T. Yamagata,et al.  Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer , 2007 .

[68]  Adam H. Monahan,et al.  The Spatial and Temporal Structure of ENSO Nonlinearity , 2004 .

[69]  M. Rajeevan,et al.  Analysis of variability and trends of extreme rainfall events over India using 104 years of gridded daily rainfall data , 2008 .

[70]  K. K. Kumar,et al.  ENSO‐monsoon relationships in a greenhouse warming scenario , 2001 .

[71]  M. Ohba,et al.  Role of Nonlinear Atmospheric Response to SST on the Asymmetric Transition Process of ENSO , 2009 .