Value for the future and preventive health behavior.

Many everyday decisions require trade-offs between immediate and delayed benefits. Although much research has assessed discounting of delayed outcomes by using hypothetical scenarios, little research has examined whether these discounting measures correspond to real-world behavior. Three studies examined the relationship between scenario measures of time preference and preventive health behaviors that require an upfront cost to achieve a long-term benefit. Responses to time preference scenarios showed weak or no relationship to influenza vaccination, adherence to a medication regimen to control high blood pressure, and adherence to cholesterol-lowering medication. The finding that scenario measures of time preference have surprisingly little relationship to actual behaviors exemplifying intertemporal trade-offs places limits on the applications of time preference research to the promotion of preventive health behavior.

[1]  R. Vuchinich,et al.  Hyperbolic temporal discounting in social drinkers and problem drinkers. , 1998, Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology.

[2]  A. Rapoport,et al.  Discount rates inferred from decisions: an experimental study , 1987 .

[3]  Carolyn M. Brown,et al.  Ethnic differences in temporal orientation and its implications for hypertension management. , 1996, Journal of health and social behavior.

[4]  J. E. Mazur Hyperbolic value addition and general models of animal choice. , 2001, Psychological review.

[5]  U. Ben-Zion,et al.  Discount rates inferred from decisions: an experimental study , 1989 .

[6]  Amiram Gafni,et al.  Risk Attitude and Time Preference in Health , 1984 .

[7]  G. Chapman Temporal discounting and utility for health and money. , 1996, Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition.

[8]  N. E. Mahon,et al.  Future Time Perspective and Positive Health Practices in Adolescents , 1994, Perceptual and motor skills.

[9]  D. Cross,et al.  Subjective probability and delay. , 1991, Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior.

[10]  G. Northcraft,et al.  Patient compliance behavior: the effects of time on patients' values of treatment regimens. , 1985, Social science & medicine.

[11]  Jerry A. Hausman,et al.  Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energy-Using Durables , 1979 .

[12]  Maureen L. Cropper,et al.  Rates of Time Preference for Saving Lives , 1992 .

[13]  J. Metcalfe,et al.  A hot/cool-system analysis of delay of gratification: dynamics of willpower. , 1999, Psychological review.

[14]  Daniel B. Hier,et al.  Familiarity and time preferences: Decision making about treatments for migraine headaches and Crohn's disease , 1999 .

[15]  W. Mischel,et al.  The nature of adolescent competencies predicted by preschool delay of gratification. , 1988, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[16]  Michael J. Moore,et al.  Models for estimating discount rates for long-term health risks using labor market data , 1990 .

[17]  A. Odum,et al.  Impulsivity and cigarette smoking: delay discounting in current, never, and ex-smokers , 1999, Psychopharmacology.

[18]  G. Loewenstein Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption , 1987 .

[19]  G. Loewenstein Frames of mind in intertemporal choice , 1988 .

[20]  Gretchen B. Chapman,et al.  Sooner or Later , 2003 .

[21]  R. Vuchinich,et al.  Reliability of a Measure of Temporal Discounting , 2000 .

[22]  W K Viscusi,et al.  Rates of Time Preference and Consumer Valuations of Automobile Safety and Fuel Efficiency , 1995, The Journal of Law and Economics.

[23]  G. Chapman,et al.  Time Preferences and Preventive Health Behavior , 1999, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[24]  J. Mckenney,et al.  Summary of the second report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults (Adult Treatment Panel II) , 1993, JAMA.

[25]  W. Mischel,et al.  Delay of gratification in children. , 1989, Science.

[26]  O. Heinonen,et al.  Comparison of the digoxin marker with capsule counting and compliance questionnaire methods for measuring compliance to medication in a clinical trial. , 1987, European heart journal.

[27]  R. Grace,et al.  The Matching Law And Amount-dependent Exponential Discounting As Accounts Of Self-control Choice. , 1999, Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior.

[28]  A. Yarcheski,et al.  Future Time Perspective and Positive Health Practices in Young Adults: An Extension , 1997, Perceptual and motor skills.

[29]  H. Black Isolated systolic hypertension in the elderly: lessons from clinical trials and future directions. , 1999, Journal of hypertension. Supplement : official journal of the International Society of Hypertension.

[30]  Peter Bohm,et al.  Time Preference and Preference Reversal among Experienced Subjects: The Effects of Real Payments , 1994 .

[31]  D. Levy,et al.  Differential impact of systolic and diastolic blood pressure level on JNC-VI staging. Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure. , 1999, Hypertension.

[32]  W. Kip Viscusi,et al.  The heterogeneity of time–risk tradeoffs , 2000 .

[33]  W. Bickel,et al.  Heroin addicts have higher discount rates for delayed rewards than non-drug-using controls. , 1999, Journal of experimental psychology. General.

[34]  J. Elster,et al.  Choice Over Time , 1992 .

[35]  D A Redelmeier,et al.  Time Preference in Medical Decision Making and Cost - Effectiveness Analysis , 1993, Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making.

[36]  J Cairns,et al.  Estimating time preferences for health using discrete choice experiments. , 2001, Social science & medicine.

[37]  J. Cairns Health, wealth and time preference , 1992 .

[38]  S. Fletcher,et al.  Measurement of medication compliance in a clinical setting. Comparison of three methods in patients prescribed digoxin. , 1979, Archives of internal medicine.

[39]  N. Sanders,et al.  Journal of behavioral decision making: "The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting", 5 (1992) 39-52 , 1992 .

[40]  W K Bickel,et al.  Impulsive and self-control choices in opioid-dependent patients and non-drug-using control participants: drug and monetary rewards. , 1997, Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology.

[41]  Drazen Prelec,et al.  A Theory of Addiction , 1992 .

[42]  R. Thaler,et al.  Anomalies: Intertemporal Choice , 1989 .

[43]  M. Gold Cost-effectiveness in health and medicine , 2016 .

[44]  R. Herrnstein,et al.  Preference Reversals Due to Myopic Discounting of Delayed Reward , 1995 .

[45]  Walter Mischel,et al.  Predicting adolescent cognitive and self-regulatory competencies from preschool delay of gratification: Identifying diagnostic conditions. , 1990 .

[46]  G. Chapman,et al.  Cholesterol control, medication adherence and illness cognition. , 2002, British journal of health psychology.

[47]  G. Ainslie Specious reward: a behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. , 1975, Psychological bulletin.

[48]  Gretchen B. Chapman,et al.  Sooner or Later: The Psychology of Intertemporal Choice , 1998 .

[49]  P. Renshaw,et al.  [Detection, evaluation, and treatment of high blood cholesterol in adults]. , 2001, Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health.

[50]  R. Thaler Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency , 1981 .